Optimism, pessimism, and somewhere in between

Bill Connelly was right on the money here.

After picking up all of the preseason college football magazines and seeing the Temple football Owls picked for near the bottom of the league the last few years, something stands out this year.

There is more optimism than pessimism for the Owls’ chances in the reformed AAC with the truth probably resting somewhere in between.

Connelly’s breakdown of the top of the league this year. He has the Owls finishing ahead of a team that has tormented them recently, East Carolina.

The Owls were picked as high as fourth in the league by the website “Underdog Dynasty” and as low as eighth by Athlon Sports.

The in-between part–where I kind of think the truth lies–belongs to ESPN and numbers cruncher extraordinaire Bill Connelly, who has the Owls tabbed for sixth.

Stan Drayton really rolled the dice bringing back his old buddy Everett Withers to be the DC.

Pretty impressive because in my mind, at least when it comes to the Owls, Connelly has a pretty good track record.

He was the ONLY outsider who, in 2019, picked Temple to beat Maryland and the Owls won that game, 20-17. How impressive was that pick? The week before Maryland had dropped 60 on the No. 21-ranked team, Syracuse, and entered the game at Temple ranked No. 23.

If Connelly is right about the Owls, they will finish sixth in the league standings this year and go bowling for the first time since that Maryland prediction. Connelly, unlike Athlon does his homework. (Athlon had Layton Jordan transferring to Wisconsin. Jordan is still here. Darien Varner is the DE gone to Wisconsin.)

This is what he writes about Temple: “Temple has gone just 7-24 over the past three seasons, with an average SP+ ranking of 114.3, but the Owls not only return a healthy amount of experience but also take on the easiest schedule in the AAC; SP+ gives them a 59% chance of bowling for the first time in four years.”

I will take 59 percent over the zero percent I saw over the last three years.

I personally would love for the Owls to win the league title but they haven’t significantly improved a porous running game that held them back last year and there are some questions about the new defensive coordinator, even though seven starters return on that side of the ball.

Victor Stoffel is the only offensive lineman with significant playing time returning although a strong argument can be made from a sheer talent level that the OL coming in is more talented than the one going out.

We’ll see.

Of course, as fans, we root for optimism over pessimism but, at least this year, somewhere in between offers a tangible reward at the end of the Cherry and White rainbow.

Friday: What Could Go Wrong?

Monday: What Could Go Right?

7 thoughts on “Optimism, pessimism, and somewhere in between

  1. https://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/school/_/id/218/class/2024/page/offers

    Slow start to the ’24 recruiting season. IMHO it makes little sense to offer 4/5 stars b/c we can’t compete w/P5 schools on $$$$$/NIL.

    TUFB Achilles Heel, NIL $$$$.

    Three flavors of kids coming out of HS:

    1. P5 ready w/NIL offer from Coach Green ($$$$).
    2. G5 2 and 3 stars who will receive little, if any, NIL.
    3. FCS level, where most of the kids who transferred out this yr wound up.

    TUFB is challenged this yr by making offers to mostly P5 quality kids. Most of those kids are waiting for Coach Green to call.

    Now G5 schools seldom matriculate 4/5 stars kids. It will be close to zero in the future. The Transfer Portal, hardship/injury/personal, will be the only avenue for G5 schools to get 4/5 star kids.

    G5 schools will change strategies in the future to survive.

    Trent Dilfer is way out in front of his G5 peers who have chosen to cry or quit. Drayton MUST change strategies to survive.

    https://www.on3.com/nil/news/trent-dilfer-uab-football-nil-deals-name-image-likeness-american-athletic-conference-aac/

    • Shocked at the offer list of some of our recent recruits. We had a guy turn us down for Ohio (not state] and his other offer was FAU. We’ve come a long way from signing the Big 33 MVPs (Adrian Robinson and Jalen Fitzpatrick) to the guys we’ve signed in recent years. I know the counter argument is that guys like Tyler Matakevich had no offers but can’t sign a complete team of no offer guys and expect to win an AAC championship. I don’t like where recruiting is going and a lot of it isn’t Stan Drayton’s fault. Pretty sure he would have been able to sign the Robinsons and Fitzpatricks back in the day.

      • it will get much worse before getting better…, amazing how quickly Congress jumped in on the PGA/LIV issue.., college football will need intervention before things will get better for G5 schools.

        When the dust settles we’ll have a return to the past with Div I (NIL enabled), Div II (for aspiring HC’s), and Div III (for the love of the game, FCS/Ivy League model.

        Boon or Bust yr for Memphis.., Big 12 issued a “To Do” list. FEDEX is all in on the Memphis NIL.., makes perfect sense. Expect Memphis and Tulane to get P5 invites w/i the next 12 months.

        Mr. Aresco, make a call to the Saudis. Offer up the AAC…,

  2. Hope died in February 2020, we just refused to accept it. Wake up, look in the mirror while shaving and say, “My school sucks”. It’s so hard…,

    https://www.phillyvoice.com/temple-university-football-lincoln-financial-field-eagles-5-year-extension-stadium-philadelphia/

    Flash forward. ok, it’s 2023. USF has had enough, they finally committed to catching UCF. Temple does not compare favorably with either one of those schools. ZERO ALIGNMENT, NO COMMITMENT, and an AD who is intent of firing vice building programs…,

    I think Johnson is just what the BOT wants, no changes to the status quo, no NIL, no talk of P5, no OCS.

    No Uni President to push athletics, apathetic BOT, and an AD who shouldn’t be here.

    https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bulls/2023/06/28/usf-football-ucf-knights-conference-realignment-big-12-expansion/

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