Monthly Archives: September 2023

09.04.23
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Know Your Opponent: Rutgers

There are a couple of ways to look at the puzzling line released about an hour after Rutgers handed fellow Big 10 foe Northwestern a 24-7 defeat on Sunday.

The Week Two line showed Rutgers ONLY a 10-point favorite over visiting Temple (Saturday night, 7:30, Big 10 Network).

You could take the Mike Missanelli approach or the Occam’s Razor approach.

Missanelli was a fixture in Philadelphia on the radio with the best sports talk show for about 20 years straight. When a puzzling line came out, Mike would say “that line is telling me something” and go the other way.

More often than not, when Mike took that line of reasoning, he cashed in with a winning ticket.

Or there is the other way, the Occam’s Razor Theory. Simply stated, if the line seems too good to be true go for the simpler explanation and jump on it.

I’m going with Occam’s Razor and taking Cincy getting 7, Tulsa getting 30 and Memphis laying 21.

It doesn’t make any sense that a Big 10 team that won by double digits over another Big 10 team is ONLY favored by a touchdown and a field goal to beat an AAC team that struggled to beat a MAC team.

Easy money, right?

Missanelli would probably disagree.

One, that same Rutgers’ team struggled to win at Temple last year, 16-14, as a 17-point favorite and Vegas was fooled once by this matchup and probably doesn’t want to be fooled again.

Two, Temple has a quarterback with the “it” factor in E.J. Warner and Rutgers, in Gavin Wimsatt, does not have a guy who has proven to be capable taking over a game like Warner has a few times.

Yes, we know Warner just had an “OK” game against Akron but we also know he is capable of doing much better.

Three, the line is and NEVER has been meant to “predict” games but ensure that pretty much an even number of money is wagered on both teams. If more money is bet on RU in the next two days than TU, expect that line to go up a bit.

Who wins?

The next few days will show if the Occam method or the Missanelli method has been adopted by the betting public.

Saturday night will be the true test to show which theory is right.

Friday: Predictable Patterns

09.02.23
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5 Takeaways From Opening Day

Watched the complete post-game press conference from Stan Drayton and will say one thing about the guy.

He was a lot happier with a 24-21 win than I would have been if I was a head coach.

Pretty hard for me to stomach that freaking Rod Carey, with inferior talent, can beat Akron, 45-24, and Drayton can’t.

Win and advance, I guess that’s the philosophy but I will say this: IF I’m Rutgers (and thank God I’ve never been Rutgers), I would not be concerned with Temple right now.

Hell, if I’m Temple–and I’ve been Temple all my life–I am so unconvinced that Temple will win this next game that I’ve canceled my trip to Piscataway next week.

Prove me wrong, Stan and the Owls.

The logic simply is this: If you can only beat a 2-10 MAC team, 24-21, you are not going to beat a Big 10 team no matter what kind of Big 10 team that is.

Five other takeaways:

The Edward Saydee wearing No. 2 looked a lot like the Edward Saydee wearing No. 23.

One, where was Edward Saydee? All offseason, we heard that Saydee improved so much that he could be a dominant back for the Owls. What we saw was what we saw last year. He had a hard time getting past the first guy who hit him. Darvon Hubbard did just a little better. Let’s see what No. 24 (Joquez Smith) can do next game. The kid deserves a shot.

Two, E.J. Warner was the Lafayette Warner not the ECU one . If you thought Warner was going to resume what he did in the last game (574 yards, 5TDs) against East Carolina, think again. He was closer to the game manager he turned out to be in his first extended duty against Lafayette and not the confident difference-maker he was against ECU. He needs to be that difference-maker at RU, throwing the ball deep to set up the intermediate stuff. He did not throw it deep nearly enough. The way to fix E.J.? Throw the bomb. Put some fear in the defense. Temple tried zero bombs against Akron.

Three, the longest line since Notre Dame turned into a dud. _ Plenty of Temple fans in the parking lot but my friend Mark correctly said: “They aren’t going into the game.” Must have been only one open window because I remarked to former Temple bowl-winning quarterback Chris Coyer “this is the longest line I’ve seen going into the game since Notre Dame.” Disgraceful crowd of 12,456. Winning cures everything and one win over Akron isn’t going to hit that sweet spot.

A win is a win but the Owls need to throw some bombs to open up the offense enough to beat Rutgers. There will be no short passing game without that threat.

Four, Layton Jordan showed up when he needed to _ Jordan, who in my mind is the best football player on the team, got the key sack of a 14-0 Temple second half. Shocked he didn’t get a single digit. If he makes plays to beat Rutgers, he deserves one.

Five, nobody expected to beat Akron by 30 _ One of my comments pre-game was that “I’d settle for a 30-24 win.” Why? Like Temple, the light turned on for Akron in the last two games of 2022. One was a 44-12 win over perennial MAC power Northern Illinois. The other was a one-point loss to a bowl team, Buffalo, 23-22.

This wasn’t Wagner or Bucknell or Delaware State or Stony Brook. This was a real team with a great head coach and the good guys won while, at the same time, lowering the expectations for Temple fans down the road.

Rutgers will walk into next week expecting an easy win. If what the Owls did today sets the trap better than a 55-13 win over Akron would have, I will sign for it.

Not expecting it, but someone hand me a pen.

Monday: Know Your Foe

    09.01.23
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    T Minus One Day: Temple Owls Take the Field

    The full Gary Segars video can only be seen through by clicking on the link below. Well worth a watch.

    One of the greatest calls in Temple football history occurred just short of seven years and a month ago when the ESPN announcer said: “The Owls have their first lead of the night … and the only one they’ll need.”

    No nicer day for football than tomorrow.

    That was after Keith Kirkwood made a great catch off a fake spike from P.J. Walker with 0:01 on the clock, giving Temple a 26-25 win at UCF.

    Those were the days for Temple. Without that catch, there is no appearance in the AAC title game for the Owls and no championship.

    As it was, the Owls got both.

    All the Owls needed that day was that Kirkwood catch. All you need tomorrow to enjoy the game is this depth chart below.

    No need to spend $10 on a program tomorrow. Print this out and bring it to the game.

    The season starts tomorrow (2 p.m., ESPN+, Lincoln Financial Field) against an Akron team that is more than capable of beating Temple. Owl Nation have always been believers. The “regular nation” over the last three years has not and with good reason.

    One, Rod Carey came to Philadelphia with a Midwestern arrogance and a “my-way-or-the-highway” approach and some of the best Temple players chose the highway.

    That gutted the program for more than the three years Carey was here.

    Two, Stan Drayton needed a full year to clean up that poisoned culture and what he did in a 3-9 season convinced many of the outsiders that he has changed it enough so that the Owls will be bowling.

    For starters, Gary Segars of “Winning Cures Everything” has gone on record that the Owls will go 6-6 and be bowling (see above video). Segars, Parker Fleming and Kyle Hunter are able to take a step back and look at what is happening at Temple now and are impressed at the direction of the program. It is one of the best college Youtube channels on the internet. Most of the other channels still trot out that tired trope of Temple sucking.

    Another, Bud Elliott, of CBS Sports has said “I think Temple can go bowling this year.”

    From their lips to God’s ears.

    Head coach Stan Drayton has said the goal is championships but did not say this year although that would be a welcome early development.

    There are concerns but one is not the most important position on the field, quarterback. E.J. Warner has that “it” factor and, when you have that factor, “it” can carry the team a long way. If the unthinkable happens and E.J. goes down, backup Quincy Patterson can win a lot of games in the AAC. Hell, when he was with Virginia Tech, Patterson beat a UNC team that beat Temple, 55-13.

    Are there concerns?

    Sure.

    You worry about a thin defensive line and cross your fingers that nobody on that unit goes down. Ironically, one of the guys who could have helped–Darian Varner–transferred to Wisconsin, where he currently is a backup DE. Ugh. When will these Temple players learn that the grass is never greener outside the Edberg-Olson Complex fence? Varner could be playing and helping at Temple right now. At Wisconsin, there is a very real chance he doesn’t get on the field.

    Nobody expects Temple to go 12-0, though, and the players on the above chart should be able to deliver a winning season against a 127th-ranked schedule in the country. That won’t happen without a win over Akron tomorrow so the Owls would appreciate any hometown fan support on one of the nicest days of the year.

    As that announcer said seven years ago, their only lead is the only one they will need. That applies if the the Owls take a 7-0 lead and add on to eventually send everyone home happy tomorrow.

    It could be the start of something big.

    Sunday: Game Analysis