Game Week: Know your opponent (Akron)

This is what happened the last time Temple played Akron.
Got to love the great Temple single digits of the past watching this ceremony on the screen via Zoom.

For how Week One of the college football season goes, there were plenty of clues left by what happened in Week Zero.

Vegas pretty much got every game right with only Notre Dame significantly exceeding expectations from a line perspective (although it should have known that Navy getting rid of a great coach like Ken Niumatalolo would have a deleterious effect on that program).

What does that mean for Temple’s opening game against Akron (2 p.m., Lincoln Financial Field)?

Give or take just a few points, the Owls SHOULD win by about 10.

Should and that’s only if both teams play up to their potential.

The only question is what kind of 10-point win: 17-7, 24-14, 35-25 or 45-35.

Take the over.

What do we know about Akron?

Joe Moorhead’s team went out with a bang last year, winning at Northern Illinois, 44-12, and losing by a point at a good Buffalo team, 23-22. Akron quarterback D.J. Irons was an All-MAC player, joined on that team by his No. 1 target, receiver Alex Adams.

Moorhead’s teams usually score a lot of points and Everett Withers’ defenses usually give up a lot of points, so that’s certainly has to be Temple’s biggest concern going into the game.

The good news for the Owls is that they have a quarterback with the “it” factor in E.J. Warner. The “it” factor is simply this: He has total command of the offense, abundant talent and a knack for getting the ball in the right spots at the right times. In Amad Anderson and Dante Wright, he has explosive perimeter receivers. In tight ends Jordan Smith and David Martin-Robinson, two dependable receivers although one is more of a reliable stick-mover and the other is a threat to take it to the house.

They complement each other well.

The running game has improved so much that its No. 1 protagonist, Edward Saydee, earned a single digit. We’ll believe it when we see it. (Not the single digit, but the improvement.)

The Owls have nine returning starters on defense and if Withers is able to put that kind of talent in the right places at the right times, tackles for losses could ensue.

This opener is no Wagner or Bucknell for the Owls, a gimmie tuneup. There is a real threat the Owls could lose this game and that should have them on their toes.

Yet this is the kind of team Temple must beat if it has any designs on a bowl game because all but one of the teams on the Owls’ schedule is better than Akron.

Still, Akron must be respected or the Owls will lose.

Consider this: The Northern Illinois team that Akron beat, 44-12, was the same NIU team that lost at Tulsa, 38-35. Tulsa turned around two weeks later and beat Temple in Philadelphia, 29-16.

If that’s not a sobering enough fact, Moorhead already took a less talented team into Philly and won a decade ago.

In Temple’s defense, the ECU and Houston teams the Owls should have finished off at the end of last season were much better than anyone Akron played all of last year.

Maybe Vegas didn’t input all of the available data. Maybe it did. Let’s hope they nail the TU outcome the way they nailed most of their picks over Week Zero.

Friday: Game Preview

Sunday: Game Analysis

Bulletin Board Material for Everett Withers?

The website Wager Talk places any blame for TU failures this year on Everett Withers.

Don’t know what motivates new Temple football defensive coordinator Everett Withers but do know one thing:

He was a competitive enough guy to have made it all the way to the NFL as a player so when someone tells him he can’t do something or they are not confident in him doing something, the competitive juices usually flow the other way.

Withers trying to answer the question what kind of offense Joe Moorhead runs.

That was Withers the player, though.

If Withers, 59, the coach is the same way, Temple should be in good shape.

The website Wager Talk is not a big fan of Withers. Nor am I.

My concerns about him are well-documented in this space and have been since he was hired by Stan Drayton to take charge of 1/3d of the team in March.

One, in his last sole role as defensive coordinator–not all that long ago in 2021 for FIU–his defense hemorrhaged points like a motorcycle rider does blood falling off his bike at 60 mph without a helmet.

Two, he was sole DC at Austin Peay (1989), Louisville (1995-97), Minnesota (2007), North Carolina (2008-10), and FIU (2021) and doesn’t have a great record in any of those places.

With UNC in 2008, his teams gave up double-digit points in every single game with the exception of a 28-7 win over Georgia Tech. In 2009, the Tar Heels’ best defensive effort was a 19-6 win over Duke (every other FBS game giving up double digits) and in 2010 they did not hold a single team to 10 points or less.

In fact, you have to go back all the way to 1995 when Withers shut out an FBS team.

College football offenses have changed a lot since 1995.

Just as an example, Chuck Heater–who is without a job right now–shut out FBS teams in consecutive weeks for the 2011 Temple team. That was 16 years after Withers shut anyone out and more than a decade ago.

To say it’s a concern for this Temple fan is an understatement. However, it’s not a concern for head football coach Stan Drayton so if the Owls give up 30 or more against Akron, it should be on the CEO, not the DC, to step in and fix things. Withers is Drayton’s buddy and evidently Drayton’s comfort factor with Withers outweighed any thought about hiring a DC with a better track record.

Akron head coach Joe Moorhead has proven he can put points on the board with lesser talent than Temple before (Fordham, 31 points, 2013) so that should set off all kinds of alarms inside the Edberg-Olson Football Complex.

Withers would have to be living in a bubble right now if he’s not aware of criticism over his record stopping modern college football offenses.

If I’m him, I’m in the E-O until midnight studying every single damn play Akron ran in scoring 28, 44 and 22 points in its last three games of 2022 and devising a plan to stop the 10 most successful ones. I’d be hitting that rewind button a million times and taking notes and delivering them to Jordan Magee and Layton Jordan and company next week. In practice, I’m making sure those guys know what’s coming and are ready for it. I’d make sure they are in the right spots and, if they are not, I’ll be asking the scout team to rerun the play until the defense gets it right.

Somebody saying you can’t do something should be a motivating factor to prove them wrong. We will find out if that applies to Everett Withers in a week and a day.

Monday: Game Week

The Ultimate X’s and O’s game: Temple-Akron

There were 69,756 people in the stands for the last most important home football game in Temple history, the 27-10 win over Penn State on 9/5/15.

There will be roughly–give or take a couple thousand–22,646 announced for Temple’s next most important game, vs. Akron, in less than two months, 9/2/23.

Hopefully, the brain trust in the coaching room at the Edberg-Olson Complex is paying attention. Hopefully, they have been paying attention.

This will be the ultimate Xs and O’s vs. Jimmy and Joe’s game.

It might be more important than Penn State because the Owls are coming off a couple of 3-9 seasons after a decade of restoring respect for the program.

Beat Akron and hope springs eternal. Losing to Arkon and another 3-9 (or worse) seems unavoidable.

Akron’s last two games proved the Zips need the attention of everyone at 10th and Diamond right now.

As a Temple fan, I’m very confident that the team wearing Cherry and White that day will have a significant advantage in Jimmy and Joe’s department.

The X’s and O’s?

I wish I could say I’m not sure but am fairly confident that the Akron coaching staff has that edge.

What makes me say that?

Akron’s head coach, Joe Moorhead, has already beaten better Temple players with worse players and a better head coach, Matt Rhule, than anyone Temple has seen since, arguably, Al Golden.

With gosh-darn Fordham football talent. That should set off all kinds of wake-the-bleep-up calls in the E-O.

Don’t fool yourself. He can beat Stan Drayton.

Will he?

Not if the defensive brain trust is studying the pin-and-pull offense.

Do I have confidence new defensive coordinator Everett Withers is in the film room studying Akron’s offense like Moorhead is studying Temple’s defense?

Hell no.

Unless he proves otherwise, Withers to me to a skate-through-life guy and Moorhead is a nose-to-the-grindstone guy. Withers hasn’t stopped any modern offense recently on a consistent basis, but Moorhead’s schemes have confused a more talented team more than once. Withers hasn’t shut out a college football offense as a sole DC in this century and he’s had a whole lot of chances. The evidence shows the opposite. Opponents pretty much have scored at will against Withers’ defenses. This is something Drayton has to take responsibility for since it’s his hire.

The pin-and-pull has been Moorhead’s bread and butter at Fordham, Penn State, and Mississippi State even before he got to Akron.

That’s a Moorhead staple and it’s been since he used it to befuddle a Phil Snow-led Temple defense.

Everyone on the Temple fandom side is going to approach this game like it’s going to be a 34-7 Temple win. Not me. Don’t fall into that trap. Temple is a 10-point favorite and Vegas is usually pretty good. On top of that, Moorhead’s offense is usually OK so I’m thinking somewhere near 31-21 Temple if everything goes right.

History is always a good teacher, though. In 2016, the Owls did not do their homework and came away with an opening-night loss to Army.

You had nine months to prepare for a triple-option offense and the best Snow could do that night was leave the A-gap open for the Army fullback and he gouged the Owls for 134 yards. By the time he inserted Averee Robinson in the game as a nose guard with 8;32 left in the fourth quarter it was too late.

Now the Owls have to be ready for the pin-and-pull.

Studying the Akron film should have been part of every Temple coaching meeting so far. If it hasn’t, there is still enough time.

Temple’s superior Jimmy’s and Joe’s deserve that much.

Monday: What if “they” are right?

This year, the cliche is true about first games

I’m not touching the Temple game but I really like Northwestern getting 6 at Rutgers right now.

The odds came out this week for the first college football weekend of the year.

Temple opened as a 10-point favorite over visiting Akron in the opener and that immediately dropped to nine the next day.

While it’s nice that Vegas set the Owls as a double-digit favorite, the public wasn’t buying it.

The old cliche is that your most important game is your next one is especially true about Temple hosting Akron this season.

If the Owls win, they are off and running and probably bowl-bound.

If Joe Dickhead, err, Moorhead can beat Matt Rhule with Fordham talent, he can certainly beat Stan Drayton with Akron talent. I’ve had a lot of low moments as a Temple fan, including suffering through a 20-game losing streak but this post-game tailgate was definitely the worst.

If they lose, some serious questions arise about whether they will be 3-9 for the third-straight season. Or whether they have the right leadership going forward.

Make no mistake about it. Akron CAN beat Temple.

Whether it will or not is another question.

Put it this way. The Akron team facing Temple in 2023 will be a lot more formidable one than the Akron team that lost to Rod Carey in the otherwise forgettable 2021 season, 45-24.

First, the Zips have a big-time coach in Joe Moorhead. There is no question he can beat Stan Drayton because he took lesser talent and beat an objectively better coach than Drayton (Matt Rhule) in 2013 when he took an FCS Fordham team into Temple and came away with a win.

Since then, Moorhead became a head coach in the Power 5 (Mississippi State) before Drayton did and fell victim to the unreasonable expectations that come with P5 fan bases.

Last year, in his first one at Akron, his team got better as the season went on and it finished with a 44-12 thumping of a Northern Illinois team and almost beat a better Buffalo team the next week, losing by just a point. That Buffalo team finished 7-6 and beat Georgia Southern, 23-21, in the Camellia Bowl. (Yes, the same Georgia Southern that beat Rhule’s current Nebraska team earlier in the season.)

Here’s why I think Temple will win. Akron needed overtime to beat St. Francis last year and St. Francis lost to a Lafayette team Temple hammered, 30-14. Also, the Houston and ECU teams Temple hung with in the latter half of the season were probably significantly better than Buffalo and NIU. Probably, but I don’t know for sure.

Not much evidence to go on since both the learning curves for Temple and Akron went up significantly as the season progressed.

Not enough evidence to bet the house and farm on the Owls so they have to make sure they cross the I’s and dot the T’s on a solid game plan over the next three months. The first film to dissect is the Fordham at Temple film of 2013.

The Owls will have to make sure they are ready for everything and anything Moorhead will throw at them and, hopefully, they did not bury that game film.

Monday: What’s The Deal?

How important is Temple at Akron?

How important is the Temple at Akron football game?

Important, and also not important at all.

If you are Rod Carey, it’s very important.

A loss continues a decline in his performance as head coach and puts him on the road to inevitable dismissal at the end of this or next season. A convincing win combined with a highly unlikely win over Boston College next week makes him 2-1 and might turn around the clubhouse to set it on the path to five or six wins, but realistically no more.

If you are a hardcore and objective Temple football fan like me, really not important at all. We’ve been saying in this space since February that the apparent “plan” for Carey as the program’s CEO was to largely rely on the backups to the players who were most responsible for a 1-6 season in 2020 to turn around fortunes in 2021.

Look at these five blocks. THAT’S Temple TUFF.

That was a recipe, in our minds, for a 2-10 season and that’s only if you beat Akron (3:30 p.m., Saturday, ESPN+).

A respected poster here, KJ, says 1-11 and doesn’t think there’s a chance to beat Akron.

We will see.

Put it this way. The Akron team the Owls are a 6.5-point favorite over beat Bowling Green, 31-3, last year to close out the season. Bowling Green is pretty bad but lost to Tennessee last week by a similar score (38-6). Akron lost to Auburn by pretty much the same score Temple lost to Rutgers and most college football fans will tell you without hesitation that Auburn is better than Rutgers.

When 13 mostly impact players leave, it’s your job as the CEO to bring in 13 better players from P5 programs. The best Carey could do is six P5 players and their impact is largely suspect. He didn’t do his job in the offseason and, as a result, might have dug his own grave.

That photo in the middle of this post tells you all you need to know about how far Temple has fallen in the last decade. In 2011, with an all-out commitment to the run, Temple hammered host Akron, 41-3. Look at those five blocks in that photo. Pretty much pancakes.

That’s the definition of Temple TUFF.

That’s a football identity. Knock people off their feet, establish the run, and then make big plays in the play-action passing game. Catch the ball and advance it on special teams and make big plays off the returns. Don’t be afraid to both return or block kicks. Under Rod Carey, a secured fair catch is considered a successful special teams’ play. Blocking a punt or a field goal? Out of the question.

That’s not Temple TUFF.

Temple really has no identity pretty much since Matt Rhule left. The Owls try to fool people with the RPO (run/pass/option) and end up fooling no one but themselves.

John Chaney once said “winning is an attitude” but so is losing and that’s why this quote from one Temple player after a 61-14 loss is so disturbing: “Rutgers wanted it more than we did.”

If you go 1-6 and your next chance to prove that 1-6 was bogus is almost a year away, you should want something a lot more than a 3-6 team did. There’s no reason anyone else should want something more.

Rutgers, at least in that sense, was a lot more important than Akron and the Owls might have showed us who we thought they were that day.

Unless they go out and beat Akron, 61-14. I’m hoping that’s the case but not counting or even expecting it. A 13-10 win elicits a “meh” but certainly is more acceptable than a 13-10 loss. I’m tired of hearing excuses about “playing hard” and correcting “fixable errors” like having two of the same numbers on the field at the same time. Do you think on one of those two bus trips to Rutgers someone, anyone, would have mentioned out loud that we have two No. 39s on an 81-man travel roster? That’s the kind of stuff that should be taken care of before the fact, not after. Losing programs make mental errors like that. Winning programs don’t. Winning is the only important thing.

I hold Temple football to the standard Al Golden and Matt Rhule established and nothing else is important to me at all.

If the Temple University administration has a pulse, it would have a similar definition of important.

Sunday: Game Analysis

Monday: Not Like That

Picks this week: Pitt 35, Tennessee 30 (Pitt favored by 3), Northern Illinois 24, Wyoming 20 (Wyoming favored by 7),

Purdue 51, UConn 0 (Purdue favored by 34), Nebraska 21, Buffalo 17 (Nebraska favored by 14), Appalachian State 17, Miami 14 (Miami favored by 14) and BYU 17, UTAH 16 (Utah favored by 7).

Season to date: 0-0 against the spread, 0-0 straight up.

Update: Predicted Pitt by five (it won by 7), Purdue 51-0 (it won 49-0), NIU by 4 (it lost by seven, a push) Nebraska by four (it won by 25), App. State by 3 (it lost by three) and BYU by one (it both won and covered).

Season to date: 4-2 straight up, 4-1-1 ATS