Know Your Opponent: Rutgers

There are a couple of ways to look at the puzzling line released about an hour after Rutgers handed fellow Big 10 foe Northwestern a 24-7 defeat on Sunday.

The Week Two line showed Rutgers ONLY a 10-point favorite over visiting Temple (Saturday night, 7:30, Big 10 Network).

You could take the Mike Missanelli approach or the Occam’s Razor approach.

Missanelli was a fixture in Philadelphia on the radio with the best sports talk show for about 20 years straight. When a puzzling line came out, Mike would say “that line is telling me something” and go the other way.

More often than not, when Mike took that line of reasoning, he cashed in with a winning ticket.

Or there is the other way, the Occam’s Razor Theory. Simply stated, if the line seems too good to be true go for the simpler explanation and jump on it.

I’m going with Occam’s Razor and taking Cincy getting 7, Tulsa getting 30 and Memphis laying 21.

It doesn’t make any sense that a Big 10 team that won by double digits over another Big 10 team is ONLY favored by a touchdown and a field goal to beat an AAC team that struggled to beat a MAC team.

Easy money, right?

Missanelli would probably disagree.

One, that same Rutgers’ team struggled to win at Temple last year, 16-14, as a 17-point favorite and Vegas was fooled once by this matchup and probably doesn’t want to be fooled again.

Two, Temple has a quarterback with the “it” factor in E.J. Warner and Rutgers, in Gavin Wimsatt, does not have a guy who has proven to be capable taking over a game like Warner has a few times.

Yes, we know Warner just had an “OK” game against Akron but we also know he is capable of doing much better.

Three, the line is and NEVER has been meant to “predict” games but ensure that pretty much an even number of money is wagered on both teams. If more money is bet on RU in the next two days than TU, expect that line to go up a bit.

Who wins?

The next few days will show if the Occam method or the Missanelli method has been adopted by the betting public.

Saturday night will be the true test to show which theory is right.

Friday: Predictable Patterns