Penn State Week: Debunking The Myths

A good recap of Temple’s single-digit tough guy tradition.

Since Al Gore invented the internet (relax, just kidding), one of the quickest ways to get a pulse of a fan base is to visit one of these ubiquitous college football message boards.

Penn State has one of the best in its Blue White Illustrated McAndrew Board, a Wild Wild West of insults, flames and trolls but, mostly, a place to hold the hand of the Nittany Lions’ fans and look at a stopwatch to gauge their heartbeat.

If you do not take them seriously, a few minutes reading what these fans are thinking can be wildly entertaining.

marshall

Matt Rhule pointing the way to PSU.

Most of them think Penn State will steamroll Temple and that faulty logic is based on a number of unrelated thoughts floating around in their heads they accept as doctrine. One, in their collective minds, Temple is nowhere near as good as last year. Two, if Army can rush for 329 yards against Temple, so can Penn State.

Before debunking those notions, here is a pretty good sampling of the way the fans are viewing Temple’s visit to Beaver Stadium (noon, Big Ten Network) on Saturday:

AWS1022  (PSU fan)

   “ We aren’t losing to Temple and I’m not sure how anyone who watched the game today would think so. Temple is worse than last year by a lot and we’re better than we were last year. If you think Temple would beat Pitt you’re crazy and I doubt we have 5 turnovers again next week. …”

Greenpeach (Pitt fan):

“You beat Temple by at least two touchdowns. Honestly, after a horrible start, I thought your team looked poised and played very well.”

You could find about 1,000 posts over there expressing similar sentiments using different words. There are a couple of things wrong with that line of thinking.

Temple is only “worse” to people who do not know any better. The people who do, the Temple coaches and the Temple fans, feel this is a better team than the one the school fielded last year. The results of the Army game do not change that. That game is an outlier because the Temple coaches do not know how to scheme against the triple option and they never really did. Temple gave up the A gaps and fullback dives all night. (Memo to Phil Snow: 44 stack, nose guard, two tackles in the A gaps and no triple option gouges you ever again.) Unless Penn State comes out and runs the triple option, gives to a nonexistent fullback, the Owls match up very well against the Nittany Lions.


Pitt had eight plays
of 20 or more yards
against Penn State.
The week before,
the Panthers had
ZERO plays of 20
or more yards, and
that was against
Villanova.
Yes, Villanova
which is quite possibly
worse than Stony Brook.

The result of the Penn State game probably will be an affirmation of it. Here are a couple more facts to ponder: Kent State gave the Nits a game for the better part of three quarters on the road. Kent State lost to North Carolina A&T last week. Yes, A&T. At home. Pitt had eight plays of 20 or more yards against Penn State. The week before, the Panthers had ZERO plays of 20 or more yards, and that was against Villanova. Yes, Villanova  which is quite possibly worse than Stony Brook.

First off, to the casual outsider, the losses of linebacker Tyler Matakevich, tackle Matt Ioannidis, corner Tavon Young and wide receiver Robby Anderson are insurmountable. The Temple fan, the guy who pours over depth charts 365 days a year, knows better. Matakevich is not replaced by one player, but by three linebackers who have 41 starts between them. Two of them are repeat single-digit players, meaning they were among the nine toughest guys on the team last year as well. Because of the play of corners Nate Hairston and Artrel Foster, who both saw plenty of time last year, Tavon Young’s loss is replaceable. Moving the other corner, Sean Chandler, to the middle of the field has accentuated his ball skills and made the secondary better. Ioannidis is replaced by the deepest and fastest defensive line Temple has ever fielded. So much so that the defensive end who made the play of the game in a 27-10 win over Penn State a year ago, Sharif Finch, is now second team through no fault of his own but because the Owls have beasts on both ends, Haason Reddick and Praise Martin-Oguike, the latter who had an interception in the Notre Dame game.

To the know-it-alls on the opposing fan message boards, these players do not exist. On game day, they will wonder where they came from and wish they had paid closer attention to what Temple really has coming back.

In five days, they will learn the hard way.

Wednesday: 5 Keys For Beating Penn State

Friday: The Rivalry Arrives

Saturday: Game Analysis

The Curious Saquon Barkley Narrative

barkley

If the Owls play a 5-2 defense, Averee Robinson will blow up the PSU center often enough to allow Praise Martin-Oquike, Greg Webb and Karamo Dioubate and company to get through and tackle the QB before he can even hand off to Saquon Barkley.

According a mental health website, the seven stages of grief can be paired down to three—disbelief, acceptance and rationalization.

When it comes to Penn State’s loss to Temple last September, we’ve already seen one and two but only now are we seeing number three. On several message boards, and in Philly.com under the name Ruben Amaro, Penn State fans have appeared and said “if Saquon Barkley played against Temple, we would have won.”

Huh?

That narrative is a reach, even for Penn State fans. The Nits lost by 17 and by 27-0 over the last three quarters. Barkley did play and got one yard on one carry. How does that extrapolate out to 100 yards on 25 more carries? The only numbers we have against Temple is that had Barkley got the 25 carries Penn State fans wanted him to get, he would have finished with 25 yards, and maybe Penn State would never have scored its only touchdown (a run by Akeel Lynch). Those are hard numbers, not the “gut” of some Penn State fans talking.

Let’s face it, Penn State losing to Temple was a bitter pill to swallow for these fans and they might have to hold their nose and down the same medicine in State College on Sept. 17.

The thought process there—not here—is that Temple is “losing everybody” and that Barkley and the returning Penn Staters will roll over the Owls. They do not know that Temple ran in two entire defensive units in the second half of the season, with many of the freshman, sophomore and junior backups playing roughly the same amount of time as the senior starters.

The thinking here is that Penn State is going to be surprised by Temple’s ability to stop the run and put the same clamps down on Christian Hackenberg’s successor that they did to Hackenberg himself. Offensively, P.J. Walker and Jahad Thomas—who had 134 more yards than Barkley in the Sept. 5 game—should put even more than 27 on the board this time.

No doubt Temple will be getting points on 9/17 and I’ll be flying to Vegas and putting my money down on the Owls, even if it is as little as two or three. Temple knows Barkley is good, but it also knows his one carry wasn’t the reason the Owls won. A large segment of the PSU fan base won’t admit that now, but they will find out in a few months that narrative is faulty, too.

Ignorance isn’t a stage of grief but, in this case, it should be.

Tuesday: Six months to practice against a triple option

Omission of Owls by Top 25 Voter Illustrates Flaw in System

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAERmFV0OZ0&feature=youtu.be

The lamest excuse in the history of mankind was made earlier this week by an ESPN Top 25 college football pollster helped illustrate the flaws in a system ripe for human error: “I forgot.”

The pollster, Travis Haney, was one of two voters who had 5-1 Penn State ranked above 5-0 Temple, even though the Owls not only handed the Nittany Lions their only loss of the season, but chose to have mercy by running out the clock in 27-10 win deep in PSU territory. The Owls scored the game’s final 27 points and had so much momentum going they could have added another score for 34-10 but chose to take three knees. Haney had Penn State ranked No. 25 and Temple unranked.

Even the PSU fans admitted as much afterward:

mercyrhule

If you can’t read this, click anywhere on the blue. To return to this page (after that), hit the “back” button on your browser.

That prompted this exchange on twitter:

Haney deserves as much credit as blame. He could have made up a more palatable excuse, but went with honestly. The other pollster, former Miami coach Butch Davis, was reached out to and did not respond. I would not be surprised if he forgot as well. He had Penn State ranked No. 23 and Temple unranked.

The problem with this example is that it probably happens all of the time and not just with the two men voting in an ESPN poll and it is an inherent flaw in a system that relies on human memory. When the committee gets together to pick the playoff teams, things like polls do have an impact—even if it is a psychological one. In this example, Temple was the most affected team but it could really happen to anyone else in any other poll. In the AP poll, Owls sit right now at No. 26, tops among “others receiving votes” and, based on Haney’s admission, they have to wonder if someone else who “forgot” them cost them a spot in the top 25 this week. The difference between 26th and 25th is enormous, because it means getting on the scoreboard crawl that runs across the bottom of TV screens for every game or getting ignored.

In a multi-million dollar business, or anything else really, the “I forgot” excuse should not fly.

Tortured History

There is a LOT more Cherry than blue in this photo and, even if there is more than that today, I expect more than one blind, deaf and dumb nitwit to write it was like a PSU home game. So wear Cherry and be loud.

There is a LOT more Cherry than blue in this photo and, even if there is more than that today, expect a blind, deaf and dumb nitwit to write it was like a PSU home game. So wear Cherry and be loud.

One of those shows on the Comedy Channel that serves as filler programming between the few good offerings on that network is something called “Drunk History” and, from watching about a minute of an episode here and there, the gist of the thing is that a perfectly sober narrator tells a story from history acting like a drunk.

Here is the Infamous quote by Joe Paterno.

Here is the Infamous quote by Joe Paterno.

No thanks.

A better program for that Channel would be something called “Tortured History” and they can narrow that down to the last 40 years of the Temple vs. Penn State football series. The word “drunk” would also apply to this one because that’s how the renewal of the series began in 1975 with then Penn State head coach Joe Paterno saying “the guy who scheduled Temple must have been drunk.”

In effect, he was saying his athletic  director was a drunk.



“Why does Temple
even play football?
To beat Penn State.”
_ Bruce Arians

By the time the teams actually played the game, though, Temple could have said the same thing about Penn State. The Owls doubled up Penn State in yards from scrimmage, 402-201, and were clearly the better team but lost on two long kick returns, one a punt, one a kickoff.

Before the game, head coach Wayne Hardin and then athletic director Ernie Casale placed 30,000 Cherry and White pom-poms on the Franklin Field bleachers.

“I told Ernie we might lose the game, but we were not going to be out-pom-pomed,” Hardin said. The first play of the game was a simple handoff to a world class sprinter named Bob Harris. He put his hand on the back of fullback Tom Duff, who pancaked a PSU linebacker and that left a gaping hole. Seventy-six yards later, Temple led, 7-0. Thirty thousand Cherry and White pom-poms were waving proudly and, to this day, that was the loudest I have ever heard a Temple crowd.

Losing that game 26-25 was sheer torture.

defeats

The last glorious victory. Note the use of the word “rivals” which would have continued to have been used until today had Temple kept up its end of the bargain.

The next year, the Owls went for two and the the pass slipped off the receiver’s hands. More torture, a 31-30 loss.

In 1979, the Owls were 10-2 and went up to State College, led, 7-6, at halftime and lost, 22-7. More torture.

When Bruce Arians took the job at Temple, one of the first questions he was asked in his initial press conference was “Why does Temple even play football?” He repeated the question and gave a great off-the-cuff answer that drew loud applause: “To beat Penn State.”

Arians gave the school its first win over Pitt in 39 years and he probably would have added a Penn State scalp had the school not be so quick to fire him. In his first year, with coach Hardin’s players, he lost, 23-18.

Another year under Arians, Paul Palmer rushed for 226 yards, and scored a pair of touchdowns, but the Owls lost, 27-22. More torture.

In 2010, the Nittany Lions could not stop Bernard Pierce who had 115 yards and two touchdowns at halftime and the owls led, 15-13. A broken ankle stopped Pierce and the Owls lost, 23-15. More torture.

The next year, quarterback Mike Gerardi was managing the game nicely with a 10-7 lead when he was pulled for Chester Stewart, who did nothing. When Gerardi was reinserted, he was either cold or trying to force a play to keep his job. Whatever, he threw an interception that led to a 14-10 loss.

Those were not the only times Penn State teased the Owls before taking victory from the jaws of defeat, but those were the ones I remember most.

Unless, of course, something gloriously different happens today.

Anderson is X-Factor Against PSU

Hopefully, Matt Rhule has sat down with Robby and impressed upon him all those hand gestures that were legal 2 years ago are now 15-yard penalties.

When a school like Penn State regularly attracts over 100,000 fans to each of its home football games, the business of previewing every game both in print and on the internet is a lucrative one.

Newspapers are sold and site counters go out of control with every mention of each matchup with host Temple on Saturday. All of the things written about this game, almost none of them mention a guy that just about everyone will be talking about afterward and that is Temple wide receiver Robby Anderson. Only by Wednesday did Penn Live even mention him and that was a fine piece by a great writer named David Jones.

MEMPHIS, TN - NOVEMBER 30: Robbie Anderson #19 of the Temple Owls catches a touchdown pass against Andrew Gaines #28 of the Memphis Tigers on November 30, 2013 at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. Temple beat Memphis 41-21. (Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images)

MEMPHIS, TN – NOVEMBER 30: Robbie Anderson #19 of the Temple Owls catches a touchdown pass against Andrew Gaines #28 of the Memphis Tigers on November 30, 2013 at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. Temple beat Memphis 41-21. (Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images)

Black Shoe Diaries, one of the best blogs ever, did a 1,000-word story on the matchups and did not even mention Robinson’s name.

The largely Penn State-focused press can certainly be forgiven for overlooking Anderson, since they have never seen him play, but many in Philadelphia have and are anxious to see him in action again. Anderson is the kind of weapon Temple fans are more than content to roll out at kickoff (3:30 EST, ESPN). Almost all of the Penn State-centric previews have focused on a repeat of last year’s matchups.

Anderson, who flunked out of Temple in January of 2014 as Robbie before his current resurrection and change of first-name spelling to Robby, brings a whole different dynamic to this one. When fans last saw him, in the 2013 finale at Memphis, he dominated the game, catching three touchdown passes in a 41-21 win. Memphis would go on to win the AAC last year.  That day, even though the Tigers rolled their coverages over to his side, they could not stop him.

It was the exclamation point on a spectacular 10-game season for the 6-3, 190-pound receiver, who caught 44 passes for 791 yards for nine touchdowns and averaged 18 yards-per-catch—the second highest average among all 126 FBS teams. Anderson has a remarkable skill set which includes a 44-inch vertical leap, sub-4.5-speed in the 40-yard dash and moves of a premier punt returner in the open field. In fact, he is also Temple’s starting punter returner this season.

Anderson’s late start  in 2013 can be chalked up to the fact that he was a defensive back in the spring and had to take care of family matters in Florida before rejoining the team later in the 2013 season. Just before a game at Idaho, Temple coaches tried him out at wide receiver and found that he and then true freshman quarterback P.J. Walker formed a cosmic connection and the rest was history.

Anderson will be on display for the nation to see on Saturday and, afterward, the question Penn State fans will be asking of their media is why they never heard of him.

Twelve days and counting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSEUf5S9O-Q

Every year something happens at Temple football camp that makes fans take a step back or at least raise an eyebrow or two.

Twelve days and counting to Penn State and these developments fall into that category:

  • Frank Nutile has supplanted Logan Marchi as the No. 2 quarterback. This is interesting only in that Marchi’s game has been compared to “Johnny Manziel Lite.” Nutile appears to be the better play-action quarterback and that is why he is moving up. P.J. Walker appears to have his mojo back and is the clear No. 1.
  • Play-action will go through the tight ends, not the fullbacks. The Owls probably will not have a fullback, so their additional blocker at the point of attack will be an extra tight end. The plan, a sound one in concept, is to establish the run with that extra blocker on the OL, then fake into the belly of a tailback to bring the LBs and safeties up to the line. Hopefully, that creates separation for big-play receivers like Robby Anderson and Adonis Jennings.
  • Averee Robinson is running with the ones. With Matt Ioannidis, Nate D. Smith, Jacob Martin and Michael Dogbe on the line, Robinson has worked his way into the top unit. Wearing No. 43, I look for Robinson—who had five sacks in the 2014 spring game—to have a big season. It’s vitally important that the Owls put Christian Hackenberg on his ass early and often and I expect Robinson to play a big part in that  game plan.
  • There is one and only one question I’d like to ask Matt Rhule in one of those pressers: What is wrong with putting the very elusive duo of Nate L. Smith and Kareem Ali Jr. back there to handle punts over exposing your No. 1 offensive threat to extra unnecessary hits? Love the toughness and reliable hands John Christopher brings, but his 2.0-yards-per-punt-return was a wasted year on what has been traditionally a very positive play at Temple . Smith averaged 21 yards per return a year ago, but only got one chance. That’s extremely puzzling.
  • Matt Rhule does not appear to trust the freshman RBs. The fact that Jahad Thomas is running with the ones as the tailback has to be OK from the standpoint that putting the ball on the ground is going to be unacceptable. Thomas has a lower ceiling than T.J. Simmons or Jager Gardner, but he is more dependable with the football and P.J. Walker trusts him. If the Owls need explosiveness later on, expect Gardner to be the go-to guy.

It’s less than two weeks and the Owls appear to be ready. Hopefully, Penn State will not know what hits them.

Not Much to Choose Between Player A and Player B

Owls began practice today for the big showdown 9/5/15.

Owls began practice today for the big showdown 9/5/15.

One of the tricks of the trade David Murphy uses to compare players the Philadelphia Phillies might be after is to compare statistics of two guys and then unmask them at the end.

It is a useful exercise not only for baseball but for college football. One of the remarkable things about the first week of play this fall is that there are two quarterbacks with almost identical stats and almost exactly the same freshmen and sophomore years who will be playing that week.

One is talked about as being a first-round NFL pick in the 2016 Draft; one is not even in the discussion. A close look at both players indicates that there is nothing to separate them.

Player A

  Games Comp. Atm. Pct. Yards TDs INTs Rating Year
2013 9 152 250 60.8 2,084 20 8 150.8 Fresh.
2014 12 203 381 53.3 2,317 13 15 107.8 Soph.
                   

By now, you might have figured out one quarterback is Christian Hackenberg and the other is P.J. Walker, but, except for the number of games involved, it is hard to tell.

In many respects, Walker—Player A—was the more productive quarterback as a freshman than Hackenberg was. He had just as many touchdown passes in three less games and two less interceptions. Hackenberg had more yards, but that could easily be explained by his three extra games. Walker’s QB rating was considerably better, 150.8 to 134.8.

Player B

  Games Comp. Atm. Pct. Yards TDs INTs Rating Year
2013 12 231 392 58.9 2,955 20 10 134.8 Fresh.
2014 13 270 484 55.8 2,977 12 15 109.4 Soph.
                   

The next year, was similar with Hackenberg getting only the slightest of nods, a QB rating of 109.4 to P.J.’s 107.8. Still, in one less game, P.J. had one more touchdown pass than Hackenberg.

Both will admit they had down seasons, but the numbers suggest that there is not much to choose.

To borrow a new NCAA basketball phrase, there is something called the eye test. Because of his ability to escape the rush, I think P.J. is the better college quarterback. Hackenberg is taller and might be the prototype quarterback, but I think P.J. will come out on top 9/5/15.