A Logical Look at the Cincinnati Defense

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As bad as the Temple offense was a season ago, that’s about how bad the Cincinnati defense was over the same four months.

If Mr. Spock or Leonard Nimoy or anyone taking a logical look at this game tonight might conclude, how much Temple improved on offense vs. how much Cincinnati improved on defense really  are the only important variables in determining a winner. The Bearcats were the nation’s 54th-rated defense in 2013 but followed that up by dropping to the No. 69th-ranked defense.

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It’s hard to judge anything by a 52-10 win over Alabama A&M because that was a 4-8 FCS team a year ago. Last year, though, Cincinnati gave up 34 points to Toledo, 24 to Miami (Ohio), 50 to Ohio State, 41 to Memphis, 55 to Miami (Fla.), 46 to East Carolina, 31 to Houston and 33 to Virginia Tech. The fact that Temple scored only six was more of an indictment against Temple than praise of anything the Bearcats did.

Obviously, head coach Tommy Tuberville knew defense was the side of the ball he had to address last year so he either didn’t address it or the bandages he applied to the defense did not stop the bleeding. Let’s work on the first part of that theory. Tuberville, at Texas A&M, was a noted offensive mind and his teams won by concentrating on that side of the ball. Maybe he doesn’t place a whole lot of emphasis on defense.

Great photo of Temple AD Pat Kraft (with tie) going nuts. Those Thomas sweeps should be there tonight.

Great photo of Temple AD Pat Kraft (with tie) going nuts. Those Thomas sweeps should be there tonight.

The second part of the theory is that maybe the Bearcats do not have a whole lot of good players on that side of the ball and that seems to be also true. The strength of the defense appears to be the two interior tackles, while the Bearcats have not had acceptable play from the ends. That probably means the same kind of sweeps that worked for Jahad Thomas against Penn State will be there in abundance tonight.

In the secondary, Zach Edwards is arguably the best safety in the conference and will probably take away the middle of the field but those sideline patterns that worked so well for P.J. Walker to Robby Anderson in 2013 will be big-play opportunities.

If the Owls attack the edges with Thomas, then hit Anderson and Adonis Jennings with play-action plays away from the middle of the field, they should be able to get points off of this defense. Those quick outs that Anderson got tackled on against a good Penn State defense could turn into explosive plays downfield for Temple.

Hard to believe that a Cincy defense that dropped from 54 to 69 is going move from 69 to decent any time soon. At least, as Spock might say, it’s just not logical. Expect Temple to score 31 points tonight. Hard to believe even a good Cincinnati offense is going to get more than three scores against the Owls’ defense and probably less.

The Concept of a Letdown

There should be no such thing as a letdown in college football, but we all know it exists.

There should be no such thing as a letdown in college football, but we all know it exists.

One of the things I’ll never understand about college football is the concept of a letdown. A typical college player works like a madman for 353 days a year to perform 12 days a year and you would think the goal would be for optimum output just for those 12 days. In the other 353 days of the year, it’s OK to have a letdown.

The dozen game days are no time for a so-called letdown.

It should not be possible to have a letdown in college football. In baseball, basketball, with the preponderance of travel and sheer volumes of games, a “letdown” is understandable.

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Even though a letdown makes no sense given the minimum opportunities to demonstrate skills honed the other 353 days, letdowns inexplicably exist. History tells us that. A Temple team coming off a 38-7 high with a win at Maryland in 2011 followed that up with a 36-13 loss at home to Toledo the next week.  Very few people thought Toledo had more talent than Maryland. That was the same Maryland team that beat the real Miami, 32-24, in the previous week.

You could look at it two ways in that both Maryland had a letdown against Temple and Temple had a letdown against Toledo, but those were just two instances of what could be called letdowns and proof that they do exist.

Last year,  despite saying all of the right things, there can be no doubt Temple had a letdown against Navy. While Navy was good and ran a complicated style of offense,  Temple had much more talent. Before the game, coach Wayne Hardin took time to explain to me the simple way to beat a triple option team was to blitz a linebacker or a safety from the quarterback’s blind side because the Navy offense was designed to leave that side unprotected on pitches to one side. He said that more often than not the unprotected blitzer would be able to disrupt a pitch before it could be made.

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Temple never got the memo and never blitzed to Keenan Reynolds’ blind side even once. After a dominating 37-7 win over Vanderbilt, an embarrassing loss to Navy followed.

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You could call that a letdown, too.  No one can predict what is going to happen tomorrow night, but the facts as we know them are Temple is coming off what had to be both a physically and emotionally draining 27-10 win over Penn State. The ingredients for a so-called letdown are there.  The Owls are saying all of the right things about avoiding a letdown against Cincinnati tomorrow night but the Owls said the same things after Vanderbilt a year ago (see the above headline).

Hopefully, deeds will prove stronger than words this time.

Tomorrow: Cincinnati’s Defense

Sunday: Game Analysis

Monday: Photo Essay

We’re On To Cincinnati

Matt Rhule correctly set the tone last week when, while talking about PSU, said Cincy was more important.

The calendar says the AAC championship football game is scheduled for Dec. 5 in an as-yet unnamed location. Calendars cannot speak, but at least this time the calendar lied. All signs point to the winner of the Temple at Cincinnati game (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN News) as the favorite to come away with the league’s championship.

If there was any question of a letdown for the Owls after an emotionally and physically draining win, this trophy will probably go to the winner of Saturday's game. Win now and it's a clear path to a home AAC title game on Dec. 5.

If there was any question of a letdown for the Owls after an emotionally and physically draining win, this trophy will probably go to the winner of Saturday’s game. Win now and it’s a clear path to a home AAC title game on Dec. 5.

For Temple fans willing to make the trip, though, the game should be one of the most entertaining of the season in any league. Cincinnati came into the game as the favorite to win the AAC East and the winner of the East plays the AAC West champion for the overall title. Taking that thought process a step further, if Navy—as expected—were to win the West, it would probably be an underdog to both the Owls and the Bearcats so the importance of this game cannot be understated.

Even without the above narrative, this is an intriguing matchup of counterpunchers in that it pits the league’s top defense, Temple, vs. the league’s top offense, Cincinnati. The game will probably be determined by which of the weaker sides of the ball have improved more, the Owls’ offense or the Bearcats’ defense. The Bearcats’ major advantage is having arguably the league’s best player, quarterback Gunner Kiel.

Temple has proven to be the league’s most ready for prime time team, having pummeled two members of the Power 5 in the last two seasons. The Owls had a SEC scalp last year, a 37-7 win at Vanderbilt, and added a Big 10 one this year in a 27-10 win over Penn State last week. In that same time frame, Cincinnati’s only win over a P5 team was 42-7 over Big 10 member Purdue a year ago.  It’s hard to tell anything about the Bearcats, who beat overmatched Alabama A&M, 52-10, last week.  The Bulldogs were 4-8 at the FCS level a year ago.

Great photo of Temple AD Pat Kraft (with tie) going nuts as he watches Jahad Thomas score a TD.

Great photo of Temple AD Pat Kraft (with tie) going nuts as he watches Jahad Thomas score a TD.

There were signs last week that the Owls did more to fix their offense than the Bearcats have to fix their defense, as Jahad Thomas rushed for 135 yards on 29 carries in the win over Penn State and quarterback P.J. Walker, rejuvenated by the return of wide receiver Robby Anderson and the addition of four-star Pitt transfer Adonis Jennings, went 15 for 20 in the passing game.

Whether that is enough to overcome a home-field advantage is the key question in a game where the key answer probably means a championship for the winner.

Tomorrow:  The Concept of a Letdown

Saturday: Cincinnati’s Defense