Temple offense: Time to take off the gloves

Temple running back Trey Blair throws a couple of damn good passes in this 2017 video.

There are three major computer-simulated websites that supposedly put in all the known data and come up with a final score for your weekend college football games.

The most accurate one beats the Vegas point spreads 9.6 percent of the time and has made a lot of, err, investment strategists big-time money.

That one has the final score of tomorrow’s Temple at Memphis game (noon, ESPNU) 37-26 in favor of the bad guys.

Must admit that one has me scratching my head a little bit because I’ve watched all eight games involving both teams and I don’t see: a) Temple scoring 26 points OR b) Memphis scoring 37 points in this one.

First, Temple’s defense has shown signs of being ahead of the offense. Holding Duke to two field goals in the second half was impressive and the 14 points against Lafayette were off turnovers. In addition, holding a Big 10 team to no offensive touchdowns indicates that the Owls might have something here and could hold Memphis in the 20-point area.

Or less.

That’s where the rub comes into play.

Our picks this week

The key point is all of the “known data.” What we don’t know, at least from a Temple perspective, is how willing Stan Drayton wants to show a hand he has not so far this season.

The so-called trick play.

Drayton alluded to as much in his AAC pre-game press conference Monday when he said “outside of the gadget plays” he doesn’t know what former quarterback D’Wan Mathis’s contributions could be to the offense.

Just by saying “outside of the gadget plays” indicates that the word “gadget” has entered Drayton’s mind. If you are Memphis right now, you are probably thinking this: E.J. Warner tosses a backward pass to Mathis, who draws the corners inside so much that Adonicas Sanders is running free down the sideline. Mathis tosses it and Temple gets six.

If you are Memphis, you might think that.

What might Temple think that Memphis isn’t?

How about this?

Warner tosses a backward pass to Mathis, who throws it across the field to Trey Blair–a former damn good high school quarterback–who finds David Martin-Robinson wide open over the middle (because the free safety bit on the fake) for six.

Memphis probably doesn’t know Blair was a quarterback but certainly knows Mathis was. That would involve thinking one step ahead of the bad guys.

Memphis has no idea that Trey Blair can throw a pass. That’s the best reason for him to do so tomorrow. (If you are a Memphis coach, he’s wearing No. 10.)

It would also involve taking the gloves off both figuratively and literally.

First, Blair has worn gloves on every single one of his plays as a running back this season. He needs to come in for at least a few plays before the gadget without wearing those gloves and run a couple of times to sell the play. The reason is simply that you can’t throw as good a pass with gloves on as you can with them off.

It’s worth a shot.

In a game where I see in the 24-17 range either way, a trick play–what Drayton calls a “gadget” play–might make a difference. We know what gadget play Memphis might be expecting. We guess they aren’t expecting double-trickery.

What Temple’s offense did not show anyone, including the simulated computers, has been innovation on offense.

This game might be a good place to start.

It’s time to take the gloves off and throw the computer for a loop that could blow a fuse or two.

Picks this week: Like four favorites and two underdogs. The four favorites are Fresno State to cover the 23.5 at UConn, NIU the 3.5 at Ball State, Ole Miss the 6.5 against visiting Kentucky and Kent State the 11 against visiting Ohio. The dogs are Navy getting 15 at Air Force and UMass getting 20 against an EMU team that gave up 50 to Buffalo last week.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread. Update: A 2-3 week (missed a push in the Kansas game by a point). Won on JMU and Rice and lost on Memphis, Duke and Eastern Michigan. That puts us at 7-7 for the season.

Update: Went 2-4 ATS as UConn not only covered the 23.5-point spread against Fresno State but won outright, Ball State won in overtime against NIU and Kentucky covered the spread while Kent State failed to cover. Won on Navy at USAF and UMass at EMU. 9-11 ATS on the season.

Late Saturday: Game Analysis

Monday: AAC Reaction

5 Guys Who Should Thrive Under Drayton

During the second half of his third spring ball press conference, only a few sentences in, new Temple head football coach Stan Drayton singled out a position group a lot of fans might not have given a lot of thought to before now.

Tight ends.

That said a lot because, up until now, wide receiver seemed to be a much deeper position but Drayton bemoaned the early lack of leadership in that group and heaped some praise on the tight ends.

There is some logic to that.

David Martin-Robinson is a 6-5, 255 redshirt junior and has always performed when he number was called. He, in my mind, is a leader. He leads a group at TEs at least three deep who could cause damage to opposing defenses this fall.

So were Randle Jones and Jadan Blue for the wide receivers.

Robinson is one of the five guys who should thrive under Drayton because, even at this early stage in practice, Drayton is understanding a basic philosophy we’ve preached here for over a decade: Coach to the talent you have, not the talent you want.

The coach who shall remain nameless forced round pegs (an NIU system) into square holes (Temple talent) for much of his three years.

Jose Barbon in the 2019 win over a Maryland team that beat Rutgers, 48-7.

Now, at least from what Drayton says, the square pegs are going into the square holes. You read here first that DMR will be a first-team all-AAC player at TE this year.

Here are four others who could challenge for league honors under this sensible system:

Jose Barbon, wide receiver _ The 6-0, 185-pound receiver filled in admirably whenever Jones and Blue went down with injuries over the last two years and caught a lot of difficult balls in traffic. He seems a logical starter at one of the WR positions and should shine.

Ronnie Stevenson, wide receiver _ The Owls have lacked a red zone lob pass threat since Branden Mack left and the 6-5 Stevenson with reliable hands provides that threat.

Trey Blair, running back _ The redshirt freshman was a superstar quarterback at Haverford High and the best punt and kickoff returner in that school’s history. Temple hasn’t had a dangerous punt or kickoff returner since Isaiah Wright was the 2018 AAC Special Teams Player of the Year and there may be a STPY Award for Blair in the future, if not this year, then maybe next. We screamed for Big 33 starting quarterback Jalen Fitzpatrick to throw a pass for Temple in this space for over a year and, when Matt Rhule relented, his first pass went for 86 yards and a touchdown against SMU. We did the same for the last staff with Blair and they were as blind as Stevie Wonder on the specific talent of their players. If Drayton allows Blair to throw a halfback pass, it will be for six. We won’t guarantee it but it’s got a 50/50 shot.

Adam Klein, offensive tackle _ The 6-5, 290-pound redshirt senior from Episcopal Academy has played here on a high level so long consider this: His blocking probably was the key factor in Ryquell Armstrong’s seven-touchdown performance in a 59-49 win at Houston. The RPO system the last guy championed probably didn’t highlight Klein’s run-blocking prowess but the downhill running game that made Drayton a Little All-American at Allegheny College will probably take hold at Temple. He earned his first career start in Sept. of 2018 against Tulsa and has been a fixture on the line since. Downhill blocking in the running game is his forte and that’s a philosophy Drayton can get behind here.

At least we can hope.

More on that after we take in the Cherry and White game on April 9.

Monday: Data vs. Feelings

Friday: A Tradition Unlike Any Other