Know Your Opponent: Rutgers

There are a couple of ways to look at the puzzling line released about an hour after Rutgers handed fellow Big 10 foe Northwestern a 24-7 defeat on Sunday.

The Week Two line showed Rutgers ONLY a 10-point favorite over visiting Temple (Saturday night, 7:30, Big 10 Network).

You could take the Mike Missanelli approach or the Occam’s Razor approach.

Missanelli was a fixture in Philadelphia on the radio with the best sports talk show for about 20 years straight. When a puzzling line came out, Mike would say “that line is telling me something” and go the other way.

More often than not, when Mike took that line of reasoning, he cashed in with a winning ticket.

Or there is the other way, the Occam’s Razor Theory. Simply stated, if the line seems too good to be true go for the simpler explanation and jump on it.

I’m going with Occam’s Razor and taking Cincy getting 7, Tulsa getting 30 and Memphis laying 21.

It doesn’t make any sense that a Big 10 team that won by double digits over another Big 10 team is ONLY favored by a touchdown and a field goal to beat an AAC team that struggled to beat a MAC team.

Easy money, right?

Missanelli would probably disagree.

One, that same Rutgers’ team struggled to win at Temple last year, 16-14, as a 17-point favorite and Vegas was fooled once by this matchup and probably doesn’t want to be fooled again.

Two, Temple has a quarterback with the “it” factor in E.J. Warner and Rutgers, in Gavin Wimsatt, does not have a guy who has proven to be capable taking over a game like Warner has a few times.

Yes, we know Warner just had an “OK” game against Akron but we also know he is capable of doing much better.

Three, the line is and NEVER has been meant to “predict” games but ensure that pretty much an even number of money is wagered on both teams. If more money is bet on RU in the next two days than TU, expect that line to go up a bit.

Who wins?

The next few days will show if the Occam method or the Missanelli method has been adopted by the betting public.

Saturday night will be the true test to show which theory is right.

Friday: Predictable Patterns

18 thoughts on “Know Your Opponent: Rutgers

  1. Does Drayton know how to manage the clock? At the end of the first half, to settle for a field goal with 3 timeouts in his pocket, when there was a definite opportunity to score a TD, was a disgrace.
    Our defense was fortunate to only give up one TD via bomb, as our safeties were constantly caught out of position.
    I have had season tickets for 28 years and I feel that this staff is reminding me of Boby Wallace or Ron Dickerson.
    I also canceled my plans to travel to Rutgers for the game.

  2. We’ve already started this discussion on the Rutgers board as well. I’m not really surprised by the line (actually thought it might be a bit lower) and a number of Rutgers posters seem to be leery of it as well. Our offense isn’t explosive and we’ve already been bitten by the injury bug (our top 2 RB’s and projected starting center didn’t play against Northwestern on top of however the injury reports shakes out over the course of the week). Warner is a good QB and Temple has some good players. The game will be ‘strength vs strength/ weakness vs weakness (TU offense/RU defense and RU offense/TU defense). I think a key factor will be depth; TU is almost paper-thin along the front lines (though we also already have a few guys banged up too).

    I don’t generally put too much stock into previous years’ games/scores due to so many dynamics/intangibles being different from year-to-year. It can also be difficult to extrapolate from Week 1 to Week 2. Northwestern is likely going to struggle all year. I have no idea how Akron will turn out. Temple isn’t Northwestern and Rutgers isn’t Akron…and of course now that the season is underway you get stuff like the injury report that comes out 2 hours before kickoff noting certain players are out that seem to come out of left field.

    Joe P.

    • I have a suspicion that Akron is a lot better than I’ve given them credit for simply because they blew out NIU and probably should have beaten Buffalo in their last two games (and Buffalo hung with Wisconsin; that 38-17 score was a bit deceiving close right up until the fourth quarter). When I got home, I looked at the program and saw that Moorhead did a terrific job bringing in Power 5 players on both lines. Damn good coach. Better gameday coach than Stan at this point and probably the best coach Temple will face this year, including Schiano.

  3. Another loss to RU means <10K fans for Norfolk St?

    12K for the home opener lowest in conf. Lowest in FBS? maybe and probably.

    How low can attendance go? I wonder who on the BOT looked at the Akron attendance and asked, "how can we do better?" Nobody!! How many BOT members went to the game?

    BOT support/lack of support must be documented and published.

    • Does Drayton know how to manage the clock? At the end of the first half, to settle for a field goal with 3 timeouts in his pocket, when there was a definite opportunity to score a TD, was a disgrace.
      Our defense was fortunate to only give up one TD via bomb, as our safeties were constantly caught out of position.
      I have had season tickets for 28 years and I feel that this staff is reminding me of Boby Wallace or Ron Dickerson.
      I also canceled my plans to travel to Rutgers for the game.

    • I’ve heard that the President and one of the BOT members were there.

  4. How good is Akron?
    Week One might have provided a clue and we’re not talking the Temple game.
    Akron beats Northern Illinois on the road, 44-12, in last year’s penultimate game.

    What does NIU do Week One?

    Beat Boston College on the road, 27-24.

    The week before last year’s Temple game, Rutgers went into BC and won, 22-21. That 44-12 Akron win over NIU is damn impressive.
    Now BC isn’t all that but RU might not be all that either.
    Maybe we’re selling Temple a little short shutting this team out in the second half.
    Could Temple win 44-12? Nah, but those couple of scores show the Owls won’t be outclassed in this one.

  5. Apparently the Rutgers-Temple game will not be broadcast on the Big10 channel – the Maryland game will be at the same time. Any suggestions?

    • go to the Big 10 network website and look under schedule. The Rutgers’ game is on there. Also Fox Sports 1 has a link to the game. I downloaded the Big 10 Network on my Firestick and there’s nothing on it. You go to the tabs and it says “nothing scheduled.” Going to uninstall it and reinstall it and see if that changes. If worst comes to worst, I will watch it on my laptop like the old dial-up MAC days.
      There are evidently two Big 10 networks. When one game is on the main channel, the other gets pushed to the second Big 10 channel.
      My non-HDTV (Verizon Fios) has the main channel as 85 and the backup as 310 although I know that doesn’t help people outside Philadelphia or Verizon. There’s a “how to watch” part in this story:
      https://www.mycentraljersey.com/story/sports/college/rutgers/2023/09/06/rutgers-football-temple-how-to-watch-channel-tv/70737248007/

      • I’ll try the “schedule” thing but I can only get it thru peacock on the TV streaming and it didn’t show it, as I mentioned. How you going to see it on your laptop? Is the Temple sports site a possibility?

      • I navigated to the game and clicked “Temple Rutgers” and it said “you are now signed on to watch it.” Now I can’t get back. I’ll find it on Saturday. There’s a whole bunch of crappy volleyball and gymnastics on now. (No offense to crapping volleyball and gymnastics fans.)

      • go to the game, all you guys are so close

      • Jon lives in Cincinnati

      • Just noticed Fubo is offering a free 7-day trial and that includes the Big 10 Network. Have no interest in Big 10 football that doesn’t include Temple so I might sign up for the trial, watch the game, catch a few more fubo offerings and then cancel on Monday.

  6. we lost ESPN out here.., It is Charter Cable vs Disney and who loses? smh

  7. Actually this Jon lives in SE OH – close to Athens where Ohio U is located. There’s another Jon in Cincy.

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