Most of the nation’s “wise guy” bettors have the Temple at UMass football game tomorrow as pretty darn close to a pick-’em.

Temple is a 2.5-point favorite at this moment. At other moments it was -4. Earlier in the summer, it was +1.5.

Most of those know nothing about Temple or UMass.

It’s not their fault.

The so-called wise guys, otherwise collectively known as “Vegas”, pay a lot more attention to Texas-Ohio State and Notre Dame vs. Miami.

They don’t spend too much time studying the G5 because the money isn’t there.

If they had, they would know there is one way to look at this Temple at UMass game (3:30 p.m., ESPN+) and that way is this:

Both teams played UConn tough last year but Temple was the team that dominated UConn in the trenches and lost on the flukiest of fluke plays in New England. That, despite the Owls having the albatross of a terrible head coach (Stan Drayton) and a worse quarterback (Forrest Brock) around their necks.

The necks are loose and free this year and that’s the way this team should play. The only players who should have their heads on a swivel Saturday should be on the home team.

Now the Owls have one great head coach and two pretty darn good quarterbacks playing a New England team far worse than the one they played and lost to on a scoop and score a year ago.

Temple has spent nine months gestating this baby of a lead-pipe cinch College Football Hall of Fame head coach in K.C. Keeler and it’s about to be birthed kicking and screaming at 3:30 on Saturday.

Keeler will be in the CFB Hall of Fame in Atlanta one day (joining former Owls Wayne Hardin and Paul Palmer) not because of what he has done for Temple but because of what he has done up to this point, winning the most FCS games in the history of any head coach.

What he will do at Temple will only be icing on that cake but, based on that history, what he’s baking now should be pretty tasty for Owl fans. UMass should be the first slice of that cake. If it’s a win, it’s a pound cake. If it’s a comfortable win, it’s a double-layer cake. If it’s a blowout, there’s ice cream on top of those double layers.

One way or another, cake it should be.

Not only did the Owls make a serious upgrade in coaching on both sides of the ball they improved their running back room by getting Jay Ducker to play first team in front of last year’s best running back, Terrez Worthy. (Bold prediction: Worthy breaks a long one and gets more yards than Ducker.)

They lost last year’s best receiver, the oft-injured Dante Wright, but overcompensated for that loss by adding Colin Chase and JoJo Bermudez, who could instantly make Owl fans forget about Wright.

On the defensive side of the ball, they replaced the worst DC in Temple history, Everett Withers, with a guy who has the chance to be one of the best, Brian L. Smith.

Keeler said his defensive line was “9-10 deep and the best I’ve ever had.” Keeler also noted that his OL was the position group that improved the most over the last nine months, perhaps due in part to playing against such a talented DL every day. This team has the ability to dominate UMass in the trenches and that’s where winning football begins.

Keeler has taken the right approach, telling his players to not worry about the scoreboard but to take it one play, one position battle, at a time. He said if they take care of the play in front of them, they can start to look at the scoreboard in only the closing seconds and they will like the results.

If they don’t, they won’t.

Still, the biggest determiner of the outcome is the attitude of the players who seem to have bought into the notion that 3-9 seasons are a thing of the past and are collectively focused on changing that dynamic now.

It all starts tomorrow. One play at a time.

One win at a time.

Me?

I’d love to see a Temple blowout but I don’t think it will happen. There will be some growing pains and it will be something between the 40-22 Super Bowl score and the 23-21 Vegas seems to expect.

Call it 24-10 Temple. That’s my story and I’m sticking with it. If I’m wrong, I will eat crow but I’m fully expecting a pretty decent slice of cake around 6:30 tomorrow night.

Saturday Night: Game Analysis