We will know how good Temple is by sunset on Saturday

Toledo is no Penn State and Temple hung with PSU. It is now time for Temple to win.

After very little to take away from the first two games, we will have our answer how good Temple’s 2026 football team is by sunset tomorrow.

That’s a bold statement but backed up by what we have seen so far.

Temple beat an 8-2-1 Toledo team, 35-6, when Bruce Arians was head coach in 1984. That Toledo team played in the California Bowl.

The reality is this: Rhode Island is a good-to-great FCS team, but it was without its all-league quarterback and best defensive player so, while the 38-14 win was impressive on its face value, not much to take away there. We do know this: Toledo would not have beaten Rhode Island, 63-10, like it did with Central Connecticut State.

Penn State exposed what we thought were two Temple weaknesses going into the season: Cornerback and quarterback play. The rest of the Owls were plucky, and the game plan was solid if not spectacular. (For example, if I go for two down 27-9, I’m going for the onside kick right after that. If I’m down 20-3 with a 4th and 1 near midfield and a running game that works, I’m going for the first down to make it 20-10. Instead, Temple punted and PSU went right down the field to make it 27-3.)

The Temple run game and run defense matched up with one of the five most talented rosters in college football and that bodes well for the future.

Yet, because of the two weaknesses, not much to take away there, either.

With his debut for Temple tomorrow, Rutgers’ transfer Sam Brown (scoring against Washington here), becomes the first Temple 4* running back since Juan Gaddy in 1995. (Bernard Pierce, who was a third-round NFL draft choice, was a 3* recruit.)

Back in February, I had to tell it like I saw it after the Owls failed to land a big-time quarterback. I thought this team had a real good shot at eight wins with a proven FCS star or a solid experienced FBS starter, but the Owls instead gambled on a couple of guys not talented enough to see the field at other places. Under those circumstances, one more win than last year was all I could expect. Put it this way: Kennesaw State quarterback Amari Odom was all-conference with his team last year after throwing 19 touchdowns against eight interceptions with a 64.7 completion percentage. He signed at Syracuse to be a backup. Think he’d rather be a starter at Temple?

Yes.

Think Temple has a better chance of winning with a guy like that than what it has?

Damn straight.

So Temple rolled the dice with P4 backups instead of a proven guy like Odom.

However, if the Owls win at Toledo (3 p.m., CBS Sports Network), that roll becomes a seven and an eleven.

Why?

Saturday would be a good day to get this Jaxon Smolik back.

Because Toledo hung with Michigan State and, while the roster of MSU is nowhere near as talented as PSU, you’ve got to think that MSU would be a contender for the title in the American Conference. By association, so would Toledo.

So if the Owls mucked around long enough to stay in tomorrow’s game and win on, say, a Carl Hardin field goal, it would not be outrageous to think they can make a run for a league title, too. While the running game has worked, the Owls have done a very poor job at getting the ball in space to playmakers like JoJo Bermudez, Colin Chase and Peter Clarke. Maybe Sam Brown’s return as the lead back will open up the play-action passing game.

It couldn’t hurt.

Back on Cherry and White Day, Jaxon Smolik threw for three touchdown passes. We haven’t seen that Jaxon Smolik since.

Tomorrow would be as good a time as any for that guy to make a return.

Saturday: Toledo Game Analysis

5 thoughts on “We will know how good Temple is by sunset on Saturday”

  1. This is the most important game of the KC Keeler era to date. Top to bottom, the Temple roster is more talented than Toledo. Temple certainly spent more money on its 2026 roster than did Toledo. This is a game Temple will win if Keeler and staff don’t get out-coached. This game is important because Army is next.

    Beating Army is a tall task on a short week coming off a loss. And, Army has a bye this week to game plan and get healthy. When was the last time Temple beat Army at home? 2013

    Keeler can’t afford to start the season at 1-3, and then head down to Florida to play USF.

    Toledo is a must win for Keeler. Lose this game and the Owls could be looking at another sub .500 season.

    This the game where Keeler’s coaching genius must show up. IMHO, the Owls went 5-7 last year because Keeler got out-coached vs Army and Navy. The Owls will beat Toledo if they are well prepared and the Temple sideline is tight on gameday.

    • I would not have gone for that 2 point conversion in OT but I’m guessing Keeler has no confidence in that defense. I think we will be lucky to win 6 games this year especially with what looks like could possibly be a 1-5 start. Realistically think we’re looking at another 5-7 season

  2. If you want to have an unbelievable, magical game that defies all the odds- play Temple. How any team could collapse like that is beyond me. It’s like it doesn’t even matter how good they are… they can always find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    On a practical level, the defensive line looks strong and fast but I wonder if they have the skills to shed good blockers and actually get to the opposing QB.

  3. Concur, Keeler obviously felt he didn’t have much of a choice. The Temple D had no answer for the Toledo passing game.

    The Temple sideline got out-coached today, again. Toledo threw the ball 51 times and didn’t allow a sack. Huh?

    Good news is Brown is all that and some. Temple can run the football. Put Mains back at guard, get King back on the line. Aamland is better than Terry at RT, keep him in the lineup. Sheppard can throw the ball well enough to keep the offense dynamic.

    The DC must go back to white board and draw up pressure. You can’t allow someone to throw 51 times without a sack. However, next up is Army. This edition of the Temple Defense is built to stop the run. Game over if Army runs the ball for over 300 yards.

    We took the wrong turn at the first cross road of the season. All pressure is on Keeler, who should keep his public comments to the bare minimum, be super brief. Focus on developing a winning game plan and practice executing it during the short week. With a loss to Army, a bowl game is less than probable.

    • I tend to agree with the staff getting out coached today, which as you point out seems to be becoming more common than I like. Navy game last year a good example. For the most part Keeler seems to be a better recruiter and works the portal better than Carey or Drayton but would like to see a little more of what made him the winningest coach in college football. My concern is better talent gets us the 2 more wins we got last year but coaching needs to add more

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