The fallacy of the Pandemic

cherryhelmet

There’s no more serious a threat to college football than the current pandemic.

In 1918, all of the Philadelphia high school Thanksgiving Day games were canceled due to the Spanish Flu.

In 2020, there currently is a serious threat about the entire college–maybe even the NFL–season being canceled due to CORVID-19.

helmetstickers

Hopefully, the Owls will get some helmet stickers on ESPN this season

In my mind, that only happens if there is a recurrence after the social distancing ends in May. There are signs where other countries–particularly China and South Korea–are getting back to some form of normalcy so it logically follows that the U.S. will, too.

The fallacy part is that all of the teams are in the same boat and no one program has an advantage over the other. Take Miami and Temple for instance. Miami got a full week of hitting in before suspending its spring practices. Temple doesn’t hit and got one day in before suspending.

Miami is at least a week ahead of Temple, maybe more, and there’s nothing the Owls can do about it if the teams resume summer camp at the same time.

Also, the areas that were harder hit–the Northeast and the Southeast, for instance–probably will lag behind the other more rural areas of college football.

Every day we are hearing about this famous person or that famous person coming down with the illness. So far, we haven’t heard any Temple or Miami players coming down with it and we probably won’t due to health privacy protocols.

Nor do we need to hear about it.

For now, though, let’s just hope that no one on the Owls or anyone they play come down with it because any Temple win should be hard-earned and there should be no excuses coming from either side for personnel issues.

Otherwise, with Miami having that week of practice in the bag, that’s a head start that probably will not be overcome and that’s a legitimate reason for a possible loss, not an excuse.

Friday: Keeping An Eye on the Staff

Monday (4/20): Smoking Out the Winner

Friday: (4/24): Spring Football?

Monday: (4/27): Temple and The NFL Draft

Friday (5/1): Smoking Out The Winners

Monday (5/4): Suspending Campaigns

Real Temple football (Kinda sorta)

 

In the movie Westerns, the good guys always won.

The robbers would come into town on their horses, rob the banks, get away and then the sheriffs would hunt them down and either shoot them or send them to trial for a hanging. In those days, the trials would last a couple of weeks and there were be no appeals.

Nowadays, in college football, the bad guys almost always win.

billboard

These days the robber barrons are the larger schools who get the best recruits, steal the small town coaches and now–with the transfer portal–steal the small town best players for the big schools down the road.


Still, the portal facts
are that Miami got
Houston’s best player
in the 2018 season and
Miami got Temple’s best
player from the 2019
season and Temple got
nobody’s best player
from any season.
It’s got to have an
impact in a real game,
not just a video one, right?

We don’t know if we’re going to see things play out that way this season but, on Friday night, we got a preview in the way of a “simulated game” between Temple and Miami on a Miami fan website called “Coach Copp.”

The good guys lost, 64-17.

Now let’s just say this is a video game and video games in the past have been proven to be wrong. This was CPU vs. CPU with 2020 rosters for each team but, from the Temple standpoint, there were a couple of red flags. One, “Mike Mitchell” (a scout team player) was the Temple leading rusher despite the fact that Ray Davis played. Two, Jadan Blue–in my mind a potential first-team All-American wide receiver–had only one catch for seven yards. Anthony Russo was pulled for Toddy Centeio but the computer forgot Toddy was at Colorado State, not Temple. Temple even had a fullback in the game on goal line offense with 29 seconds left in the first quarter and we know that’s not going to happen under Rod Carey.

So there.

Beyond that, without any real sports to watch, it was at least something and Miami fans were all happy. Let’s hope the Temple players watch this and use it as bulletin board material and reaffirm themselves to proving that video wrong. Still, the portal facts are that Miami got Houston’s best player in the 2018 season and Miami got Temple’s best player from the 2019 season and Temple got nobody’s best player from any season. It’s got to have an impact in a real game, not just a video one, right?

Maybe not.

Friday night’s simulation small reminder that the good guys don’t always win and, in college football, the good guys are falling behind the bad ones each and every passing day.

Hopefully, the Temple players are determined to watch this video simulation every day before lifting and running and it will light a fire under them to prove games are decided on the field and not by computers.

Monday: The Pandemic Fallacy

Friday: The Case for Grooming

Monday (4/20): Smoking Out the Winner

Rooting for just one TU player who left

 

Great short video about a time where players were loyal to a coach.

We’re going to proceed under the assumption that there will be a college football season this fall.


The fact two Temple
defensive linemen the
last decade were NFL
first-round draft picks
indicates that another
AAC Defensive Player of
the Year award would have
moved Roche from a projected
No. 4 pick to a projected No. 1.
Someone was giving him very bad
advice if they told him a season
at Miami would have improved his
status over another at Temple

It could be an entirely different one than we’re used to (maybe one without crowds) but it will also be different in another way as well.

Rooting for at least one Temple player to succeed on another college team.

That player would be Toddy Centeio because he used the transfer portal the way it was meant to be used as someone who wasn’t starting and succeeding at his former school but looking for an opportunity to move up at another.

narducci

Sorry, not going to root for Quincy Roche or Kenny Yeboah to succeed at Miami or Ole Miss because they used Temple, not the system. Temple did all of the hard work recruiting and developing them, giving them a chance to shine and they thanked the school by going to another school.

The transfer portal never was meant for starters and guys who were relatively happy in their prior locations. There was no sign that Roche was anything but a team player here and happy to be with his teammates. The fact two Temple defensive linemen the last decade were NFL first-round draft picks indicates that another AAC Defensive Player of the Year award would have moved Roche from a projected No. 4 pick to a projected No. 1. Someone was giving him very bad advice if they told him a season at Miami would have improved his status over another at Temple.

Same with Yeboah. A statisical analysis shows Temple threw to the tight end more than Baylor (his first transfer choice) and Ole Miss (his second). I kind of doubt that Kenny will catch more than 19 passes for 248 yards and five touchdowns down there. I suspect he would have done more here.

Hard lessons, though, are learned the hard way.

Not rooting for either one to fall flat on their faces, but if Roche sacks anyone in an ACC game don’t expect me to get up from my seat and applaud. Hell, I’ll probably turn the channel.

Centeio, on the other hand, I hope throws a zillion touchdown passes and runs for 1,000 yards and leads Colorado State to a bowl game. His advancement here was blocked by a better player who won the job fair and square.

The only time I won’t be rooting against him is if Colorado State plays Temple in a bowl game and there’s no reasonable bowl tie-in scenario where that happens.

Saturday: Real football (sorta)

Missing Cherry and White today

Cherry and White Day primer

When the football season starts, and I’m inclined to think it will, taking the one step back approach to take two steps forward probably will be at least one reason for it.

Unfortunately, the step back is tomorrow when the realization hits that there will be no Cherry and White Day.

Mitigation of crowds now is just one thing that hopefully will be able to allow such gatherings in September. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly, among others, said team activities will have to start by July 1 in order to have a season. I’m not buying it. For years, the Ivy League didn’t allow team activities until August (not even spring football) and they were able to field football teams in the fall. It might be sloppy football, but I still think there will be football. Instead of hugs and handshakes in Lot K, there might be a lot more fistbumps and that’s OK. As long as my beloved Owls are on the field, that’s the most important thing.

Temple football spring game, Cherry and White game, Temple football,

Nothing newsworthy has come out of a spring game since Jadan Blue caught three touchdown passes in 2017.

There hasn’t been a Cherry and White game for a long time, but I do miss the day itself.  Aside from the commaderie with people you’ve gotten to know for years, the surrounding festivities have been well worth the trip itself.  For one, there is no better place to be Temple gear. Much of it will remain on the shelf like the $33 “Mayhem is Coming” T-Shirt purchased before Geoff Collins’ first game.

No need to wear that now since Mayhem never came and it sure has left.

Others are keepers, though. At one of the Al Golden “games” I was able to purchase a game-worn Temple football jersey from the Big East days and another Temple sweatshirt for more than reasonable prices–even lower than the Mayhem shirt–and support the program at the same time.

Last year, at the Olympic facility, there were a number of tables set up with a lot of interesting items. The “football” itself? Err, not so interesting. I left after a punt return drill early in what would have been the “second half” when the “tacklers” waved at the ball carrier with tackling dummies. No wonder we sucked at punt returns in the fall. Still, though, it was a must-see day for festivities, if not for the football portion. I really haven’t seen a good Temple spring game since Al Golden was here and he was trying to establish a culture of toughness that would carry over to the fall.

We’ll have to wait until next year for that, though, and that’s a small price to pay if we’re going to see real games come September.

Monday: An ex-Temple player to root for

Saturday: A Look Ahead at Miami

 

Nothing foolish about this April

Devonte Watson’s unannounced arrival at the E-O is the biggest sensation of camp so far.

Normally in this space on this day in the past, we’d make up some story with enough of a kernal in truth to raise eyebrows.

Not this year.

April is here but, for the first time, it doesn’t feel like April. There will be no Cherry and White game for one difference and that’s a first in my lifetime. When I go for a jog in the park, everyone has gloves and masks. All winter long while freezing talking my daily walks on the trail, I’d yell to my bicycle friend Les “I can’t wait until April” as we both noted how freezing it was.

It’s April, but it’s not how I thought it would be.

This will be a memorable April if we get through it and hopefully we won’t see another one like it. So instead of an April Fool’s story this year, we’ll republish the one that got the most reaction in terms of page views. I still think there’s some innovation left in football and one of those things would be to find a 6-11 guy with a 41-inch vertical leap and a 97-inch wingspan, plant him behind the nose guard and have him block field goals all day.

Here is that story:

For the rest of his football coaching life, new Temple University football head coach Matt Rhule will probably do a lot of the same things old Temple coach Al Golden did.
Why not?
Look where it got both Temple and Al.

Devonte Watson’s Temple ‘][‘ gloves had to be specially
ordered and reinforced with extra padding so that he doesn’t
sustain a hand injury from blocking so many field goals.

So I was only amused and not surprised when I heard that Rhule is making folks visiting the Edberg-Olson Football Complex to sign a sheet asking “not to report anything football-related” they see at practice.
Golden used to do the same thing.

watson

“What’s he doing there, enriching uranium?” I asked when someone told me that Rhule adopted the Golden Rhule regarding secrecy.
Enriching uranium  at football facilities is not a new thing.
Enrico Fermi did the same at the University of Chicago in the early days of World War II.
Well, it turns out that Rhule is enriching uranium (in a football-science way) and the result could be of nuclear proportions in the college football world this fall.
At least in the science of sport according to a report in this morning’s Temple Times.
About 150 years ago, Dr. Alexander Graham Bell created a sensation in science with these few words:
“Watson, come here, I need you!”
Thomas Watson was his assistant and Bell had just spilled acid while inventing the phone.
The moment changed the science of communication forever.
Another Watson, this one named Devonte, may have helped change the science of football last week at Temple University’s football practice.

This morning’s Temple Times broke the news.

A freshman on a basketball scholarship, Watson showed up unannounced at Edberg-Olson Hall, the school’s football practice complex, the day after the basketball Owls were eliminated from the NCAA Tournament by top-seeded Indiana.
“All I could see was this tall guy ducking under the door,” Rhule told The Times. “He shook my hand and said, ‘Coach, I’m Devonte Watson, I want to come out for the football team.’
“I mean, he’s 6-foot-11, I thought he was a basketball player and I asked him flat out: Are you on a basketball scholarship?’ He said he got permission from coach (Fran) Dunphy. So we got him in the biggest uniform we could and told him to get out there.”
First off, Rhule said, they tried him at wide receiver.
“He was OK there,” Rhule said. “You see he could catch the ball but he wasn’t comfortable running routes. He’s 6-11, got a wingspan of 97 inches, and we figured we could use him on red zone offense but then some of our other coaches had other ideas.”

“We’re all about giving youngsters college experiences they’ll never forget and Devonte won’t forget this. Look, I didn’t bring him here with the intention of blocking field goals for our football team but that’s where his road led. He obviously has a gift.”
_ Fran Dunphy

Special teams coach Allen Mogridge had the best suggestion, Rhule said.
“Allen asked Devonte what he was known for best as a high school player,” Rhule said. “Devonte said, “Blocking field goals.’
“That’s it, Allen said. Allen suggested that we put Devonte on the special teams, blocking field goals.”
For the better part of all last week, that’s what Watson did.
Block field goals.
Boy, did he ever.
When one of the Temple kickers launched a field goal attempt, the freshman with a vertical leap of 39 inches stuck his big paw out and blocked it almost every time. Kick thud, followed by block thud.
“He’s amazing,” Rhule said. “Nothing gets by him. He’s not only 6-11 but he’s got these incredible instincts to block field goals. He just stands there behind the nose guard and jumps up and the kicker has got no chance. Think about it. In basketball, all of these great athletes are driving in a full speed and he still blocks their shots. In football, all he’s got to do is stand behind the nose guard and time a kick. It’s easy by comparison.
“We tried all three of our kickers and he must have blocked 10, 11, 12 field goals in a row. He’s like Bernie Parent was with the Flyers. Nothing gets by this guy. I don’t want to jinx him, but it’s really going to be hard to kick field goals against Temple this season.”
When asked about Watson going out for the football team, Temple basketball coach Fran Dunphy told the Temple Times he gave his OK.
“We’re all about giving youngsters college experiences they’ll never forget and Devonte won’t forget this,” Dunphy said. “Look, I didn’t bring him here with the intention of blocking field goals for our football team but that’s where his road led. He obviously has a gift. All I asked Matt was not to get him hurt and Matt said he’d do his best. Matt won’t let him catch passes. He won’t allow him on the kickoff return or receiving teams. He just wants Devonte to block field goals. That’s good enough for me.”
Err, one more thing.
Happy April Fool’s Day everyone.

Other notable Temple Football Forever April 1 stories in the past: 

Big 10 Explores Idea of Adding Temple

Addazio’s First Five-Star Recruit

Prodigal Son Returns

Lack of NCAA money another blow for G5

Screenshot 2020-03-29 at 12.41.15 PM

Tough decisions for Temple in the past included dropping baseball. Who knows what the next decision for Temple will be?

As far away as five months is, you don’t have to be a Nosadramus to figure out Temple football attendance is going to be impacted somewhat from the residue of this pandemic.

People who once thought nothing of sitting in a crowded stadium will now think long and hard about making such a commitment.

footballs

Those of us who have gotten into the habit of making Saturdays a college football day probably won’t be swayed if this thing dies down as expected.

Yet the effect of the pandemic on the pocketbook is already being felt, according to a recent story on footballscoop.com.

This is from that story:

The NCAA on Thursday announced it will distribute $225 million to Division I schools in June, a figure that was unanimously approved by the board of governors.

That figure is less than half of the budgeted $600 million the organization planned to send out, had the NCAA tournament been played.

Fifty million of that $225 figure will come from reserves, and the NCAA will use its $270 million event-cancellation insurance policy to pay off a line of credit that will cover the remainder of the money paid to schools.

While Division I schools are forced to deal with massive shortfalls, they get off easy compared to lower-level schools. From the NCAA:
Division II will receive 4.37% of actual revenues, currently projected to be $13.9 million for the division, which is a $30 million decrease from last year. Division III will receive 3.18% of actual revenues, currently projected to be $10.7 million for the division, which is a $22 million decrease from last year. These amounts will be used to fund national programs.”

As the author of the story, Zach Barnett, pointed out, the Power 5 schools who have vast reserves of money will survive but Group of Five schools like Temple and especially FCS and Division II will struggle. No one knows how much Temple was getting from this fund, but let’s assume half of what Temple gets from this source dries up. That’s money Temple was expecting to come in and won’t get now.

Football seems to be safe at Temple because the university committed to a long-term deal with the Eagles for use of Lincoln Financial Field. Other sports, though, could be on the chopping block and not just at Temple, but at all G5 schools.

In a sport where the rich seem to get richer and the poor get marginalized, this unfortunately par for the course over the last decade or so.

Wednesday: An April Anthology

Friday: A Year Without Cherry and White

Comparing seasons: A soft 8-5

 

In the entire modern history of Temple football, the Owls have had eight seasons similar to the one they had in 2019.

The most similar one was the same 8-5 the Owls posted in the previous year, but the Owls also had a 9-4 season in 2011, an 8-4 season in 2010, a 9-4 season in 2009 and a 7-4 season in 1990.

The difference is a stark one.

armsteadcherry

For Temple to be really successful in 2020, Rod Carey will have to put the ball in Ray Davis’ hands as much as Matt Rhule and Geoff Collins did with Ryquell Armstead

In none of those other seasons did the Owls suffer three blowout losses like they did in 2019. To me, despite the two wins over then top 25 teams, that’s a soft 8-5.

If Pat Kraft pulled Rod Carey into his office for a year-end review like most of us people in regular jobs have, that’s the one criticism he should have of his old Indiana football buddy.

“Rod, great job beating two top 25 teams but you’ve got to cut that blowout shit out.”

Somehow, though, I think Rod-with a $10 million buyout–is on cruise control at Temple and Kraft is offering no year-end reviews.

Take what Geoff Collins did vs. Carey in comparison. In my mind, Carey still retains bragging rights against Mr. Mayhem because he beat Collins Power 5 team with Group of Five talent, 24-2. If that changes this season in Atlanta, though, that all goes out the window.

Screenshot 2020-03-26 at 11.12.30 PM

Today is our 11th anniversary on wordpress after switching from blogspot

Still, the Apples vs. Apples comparison–Temple talent under Collins vs. Temple talent under Carey–has to objectively go to Collins and that comes from a guy who was a lot tougher on Collins and his offensive coordinator Dave Patenaude than I ever was on Carey and Mike Uremovich.

Here’s why: Collins’ 8-5 season was way more competitive in the five losses than Carey’s 8-5 season was. Collins’ team led, 34-26, at halftime against a top 10 team on the road, UCF, before falling, 52-40. Carey’s team lost at home to the same talent, 63-21.

Carey also lost head-scratchers at SMU (45-21) and to a 6-6 UNC team (55-13). In both games, Temple was a 6.5-point underdog. It wasn’t just me that saw Temple as the underperforming team, it was the nation.

Our reasons have been chronicled in this space until our faces have turned Jadan Blue. Temple has been a run-first team under previous coaches and the Owls used their toughness along the offensive line and in the run game to extend opponents into the fourth quarter. Carey bringing a RPO to Temple from NIU has needlessly opened areas for the bad guys to exploit and run away from Temple. Nothing would open passing lanes for All-American potential receivers like Blue and Branden Mack than a strong running game led by Ray Davis. Nothing makes those passing windows tighter than a passive commitment to the run.

We posted these same criticisms of Matt Rhule after his first two RPO years and he was flexible enough to change his style and increase his pay from $2.4 million per year in his final contract at Temple to $4.7 at Baylor and $6.3 at Carolina.

So far, Matt hasn’t cut us a residual check and we don’t want one.

All we want is for Temple to get back to being Temple. Run first, extend the game into the fourth quarter and not be embarrassed in losses. If Carey gets a pay raise for returning the Temple brand, we will kiss his ass incessantly and thank him without expecting anyting  in return.

If he’s too stubborn to change, he will never be successful here but a lot of 6-6 seasons will keep him around for a decade or so and pay him comfortably because Temple never fires mediocre coaches. To me, that’s not good enough.

Temple should always strive for excellence and reject medicority the same way it rejected failure more than a decade ago.

Monday: Another kick in the nuts to the G5

Wednesday: An April Anthology

Friday: Is That All There is?

Temple Football: Business As Usual Six Feet Apart

The world stops occasionally for most of us but not for a Division I football player.

At least not a Division I football player who expects to be successful. Guys lift and run 365 days a year and those who don’t fall behind.

We assume that’s what guys like Jadan Blue, Anthony Russo and Ray Davis are doing right now even in this national health crisis with the rest of their teammates, only this time six feet apart. I would assume this can be done at the E-O but really lifting and running can be done anywhere.

They have to because they have to assume the guys from Miami are doing the same thing and they want to avoid beginning the next season the way they ended the last one. David Feeley, the strength coach there, was the strength coach at Temple and the Owls who were around then now he’s not letting up on the guys down there. The lifting and the running and the passing drills are done at least six feet apart.

That’s what we’re hoping for right now.

So we’ll soldier on here as well and try to keep posting a couple of times a week until summer camp starts.

What we do know is this: Miami has a substantial lead in terms of preparation against Temple on top of a substantial advantage in adding talent via the portal. Miami added a quarterback (D’Eriq King) who accounted for 50 touchdowns in his last full season at Houston and a defensive end from Temple who was a first-team All-American and turned down fourth-round NFL money (or above) to essentially do his part to beat his old teammates. The school that basically stole a head coach from Temple and a strength coach from Temple now has stolen an All-American from Temple.

That’s what we’re up against.

Temple has added crumbs in comparison while getting hit hard in the subtraction department. The preparation part is this: Miami was able to complete a full week of practices before suspending things while Temple was able to get in one day.

The Owls have to do a lot to catch up to both. Hopefully they will have the time to do it. All indications are that there will be an opening day but this time the opponent won’t be anything like Bucknell.

Friday: Comparing Successful Seasons

Uncertainty is the word of the day

temple football fans,

Hopefully, someday this will be a return to normalcy

Got a call a couple of weeks ago from my new season-ticket representative.

“Mike, this is (named withheld) new season-ticket representative. How are you today? Just wanted to touch base if you want to renew your season tickets?”

“I think I’m going to hold off until after Cherry and White Day,” I said.

Then the next day came the news that there would be no Cherry and White Day on top of no March Madness on top of no opening day and that Temple football spring practice would be pushed back for two weeks.

Penn State fans and over-reaction

The opposite of social distancing

In the ensuing days after that, we’ve heard that there would be no spring practice, no spring sports and we might not see baseball until June.

Uncertainty is the word of the day and we are now faced with the real possibility that the season itself could be delayed.

The best-case scenario is that “the curve” of available treatment for the coronavirus will be flattened so that the health care system is not overwhelmed by the summer. That means increased social distancing in addition to constant washing of hands. This virus is super contagious so if you turn the light on to wash your hands, then wash your hands, then turn the light off, you can catch it with the second touch if you didn’t clean the switch surface.

Crazy.

So you’ve got to be constantly aware of your environment.

The most important thing is not sports now but getting to the other side and keeping as many of us healthy as possible. So if you can, quaranteen. If you can’t, wear gloves as much as possible and be aware of cleaning surfaces as well as hands.

That said, I can always renew the season tickets in August. The only good thing about Temple football in a 70K stadium is that practicing social distancing won’t be as hard this fall as, say, at Alabama.

Monday: Business As Usual 

 

Temple football’s moving parts

NCAA Football: Florida at Miami

Scott Patchan was available for Temple until six days ago, when he decided to join Steve Addazio and Todd Centeio at Colorado State. At least Daz seems to have mastered the portal.

While the Temple football Owls could have replaced Don Bosco (and Temple) grad Matt Hennessy and AAC Player of the Year Quincy Roche with a couple of standouts from this year’s opponents in the portal, Rod Carey has decided to move some chess pieces he already had to replace the ones he lost.

According to OwlsDaily.com, the Temple head coach has moved tackle Adam Klein to center.  That makes right tackle, a position of strength, weaker. Since Hennessy is an NFL player, that also means center is weaker.

It also doesn’t do much for your depth chart.

1183267127.jpg.0

Not much depth, but Owls will have the best coaching sweatshirt in the league.

Seems to me that getting Mike Maietti, another Don Bosco guy who made 33 Big 10 starters for Rutgers, would have stabilized the center position and allowed Klein to progress at right tackle, but that might be injecting too much logic into the planning.

As far as Quincy Roche’s replacement goes, Carey seems to be putting all of his eggs into the Emmanuel Walker basket. Walker played in five games for Wake Forest in a three-year career. Scott Patchan, who was still in the portal until six days ago, started 19 games for the Hurricanes and had 5.5 sacks last year. He probably would have relished the opportunity to outperform Roche in the Sept. 5 opener at Hard Rock Stadium but he, like Maietti, is water under the dam now.

Damn.

Since the Owls also lost Dana Levine and Zack Mesday, who started a lot of games, they are also thin on the other side with only Arnold Ebiteke having extensive playing time at the other end.

Presumably, that’s an area where the Owls will move some defensive players around to fill depth. Hopefully, the coaching staff knows what they are doing but, in the Owls’ Daily article, Carey said reaching into the portal is still a possibility.

Let’s hope so.

Friday: Uncertainty ahead