Tag Archives: Jay Ducker

11.28.25
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Only one team in the league could have beaten UNT today

Only one team in the American Conference could have beaten No. 22-ranked North Texas today.

No, it wasn’t the usual suspects–Tulane, South Florida, Navy or Memphis–but it was another 3-4 team like Temple was:

Army.

This highlighted play is what lost the game for Temple.

The Cadets have pretty good intelligence in the sense that Jeff Monken is probably the most underrated coach in the country and knew that North Texas had the 14th-ranked run defense in the league. That’s another way for saying it was the worst run defense in the league. Monken probably also might have known that on top of that the Mean Green had two starting defensive tackles out with injuries.

Army would have run, run, run until UNT proved it could stop the run.

Temple probably should have done the same thing in a 52-25 loss in Denton.

For awhile there, it looked like the Owls had this thing figured out–run the ball, keep the ball away from Drew Mestemaker and company and shorten the game.

Maybe it wouldn’t have won the game and maybe UNT would have answered every long Temple run-dominated drive with a short drive to tie it.

“Why the hell are you guys even attempting a pass when it’s obvious North Texas can’t stop the run?” Jeff Monken probably said while watching the Temple game on Saturday.

Then again, Temple forced one turnover and, if the refs had any integrity whatsoever, would have forced at least one other and the Owls would have been ahead of the trading scores game.

That’s assuming Temple would have shredded a suspect UNT run defense.

We will never know because the Owls abandoned the running game a little too early.

How early?

On the first play from scrimmage, Jay Ducker had an 8-yard run, followed by an 8-yard run by Keveun Mason, followed by runs of 10, 5, 6 and 1 from Ducker.

Except for that last run, they weren’t stopping Ducker. Then Temple had to dick around and throw a pass.

No need to do that.

The Owls were called for a questionable ineligible man downfield but had Ducker gotten another opportunity, who knows if they would have been able to stop him? Or even a couple more opportunities. The weird thing is that Temple never needed to go triple option to win–just Jay Ducker right, Jay Ducker left and Jay Ducker up the middle with occasional cameos by Keveun Mason and Hunter Smith to the outside.

Army would have stuck with the game plan.

For some reason, Temple got away with something that was working and everything unraveled shortly after that.

When the battle plan is working, stick to what got you there and don’t deviate. If the enemy is in full retreat of your infantry, you never have to call in air strikes.

Army understands that.

Maybe Temple will next year.

Monday: Season Post-Mortem

11.27.25
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Temple-UNT: Moving parts offer some hope

If the Owls can visualize a 34-28 OT win at North Texas, they can do it.

If nothing had changed over the past few days, the prognosis for Friday’s football game at North Texas would have been exceedingly dismal for Temple.

Now it’s just regularly dismal. Or to be optimistic, more interesting.

This would be K.C. Keeler’s greatest win of his 276 as a head coach and enough for Temple to commission of statue of their living legend placed at the E-O.

A couple of moving parts, though, have given the Owls some hope in their final attempt to secure a bowl bid to make it a magical season at the 22d-ranked Mean Green (3:30 p.m., ESPN). One, North Texas head coach Eric Morris is headed to Oklahoma State and, two, quarterback Drew Mestemaker is probably following him.

How well UNT compartmentalizes those distractions probably will determine whether the Owls can stay in the game so we did a deep dive only over the last 10 years to find out how similar teams and coaches handled those situations.

Spoiler alert: Not very well.

Most head coaches who get other jobs at or near the end of the seasons go right to the other job and skip the final game with their old teams. Over the last decade, we’ve found 14 FBS head coaches who did stay and coach both the final game of the regular season and the bowl game.

In those 28 games, those coaches were 12-16. Shocking, because in every single one of those cases, all 14 of those head coaches had winning records in those seasons.

No data available if that also includes the star quarterback.

Breezy and 68 for Friday’s game on ESPN.

That’s an indication of a couple of things. One, their level of detail to the job currently at hand probably isn’t as comprehensive. Two, their eyes are on the next big thing.

None of that applies to Temple, though, and, if the Owls have an advantage, that’s it. The Owls have a committed coach and a roster of players whose stated goal at the beginning of the season was to make a bowl and turn this program around.

If they can visualize this win, they can do it. If they can’t visualize it, they can look at the video at the top of this post.

Their level of detail should be razor-sharp. For this game, that detail includes resurrecting the running game of Jay Ducker and Hunter Smith against a UNT defense whose Achillies Heel is run defense. Keep the ball. Control the clock. Use play/action passes from Evan Simon to keep drives alive and, most importantly, keep the ball out of the hands of Mestemaker and his explosive offense. North Texas is ranked No. 14 and last in the American Conference in run defense, giving up more than 211 yards a game. Put it this way: Ducker has 746 yards and, if he gets those 254 yards Friday to hit 1,000, Temple wins.

Plain and simple.

Or maybe get 150 and Smith get 100.

Sounds like a game plan head coach K.C. Keeler can get behind.

Also, that coach has been here before.

In Keeler’s 276 college football victories–the most ever as an active head coach–he has won 11 games as an underdog of 20 or more points. He is “only” a 19.5-point dog right now but that could change by kickoff.

Never, though, has Keeler beaten a ranked FBS team as a 20+ point underdog. He’s got everything else on a stellar resume so why not add this? No better time than now.

If he and the Owls are able to pull this one off and get to a bowl, it should be enough for Temple President John Fry to commission a statue of him placed right inside the gates of the E-O. Or at least approve a Go Fund Me to get the project going.

That would be one moving part Temple fans can get behind.

Late Friday Night: Game Analysis

Monday: Season or Bowl Analysis

07.11.25
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Temple football: The safest bet in sports

Hard to see here, but placed this bet on the Owls today.

Since I’m on a fixed income now and not receiving too much money from operating this side hustle called Temple Football Forever, my bets on sports these days are few and far between.

Was really confident the Philadelphia Eagles would beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl and plucked down $50 bucks on the Birds.

That was my last bet.

Summer practice begins in two weeks and the balls are inflated and ready to go.

Today we’re talking about my next one.

As confident as I was in the Eagles then, I’m more confident in the Temple football Owls now.

In a vacuum, meaning had new Temple football head coach K.C. Keeler done nothing with the roster, even with him being the HC, I wouldn’t have made that bet.

Keeler aggressively upgraded the roster on the front end and spent the month of June upgrading the roster on the back end.

Plenty of examples to choose from but we’re just going to touch on a couple today.

This Jo Jo Bermudez kid (WR) is interesting. Not only was he the best receiver on a Delaware team that didn’t have a quarterback nearly as good as Evan Simon, but his high school coach also called him “the best player in the state of New Jersey, regardless of position” as a high school senior. He signed a P4 deal at Cincy before transferring to Delaware.

K.C. Keeler celebrating me winning my last sports bet.

Maybe he’ll excel at the AAC level.

Jay Ducker was the leading rusher at NIU (and in the entire MAC) as a true freshman, then transferred to Memphis (where he was the leading rusher there), then to Sam Houston (where he was the leading rusher there). We don’t need to know if he’ll excel at the AAC level. He’s already proven to be good at the AAC level.

Keeler signed a DT starter at UMass who will (probably) be a backup to Miles, Morris and Haye here. He signed the best linebacker UMass had, yet some believe UMass has a chance against Temple. I don’t. That’s going to be more of a 24-10 final than the 27-25 score we saw in 2015.

Simon and McCoy give Temple two good quarterbacks. The last six years the Owls have had one.

Do I think they are going to challenge for the AAC title?

Owls have been working every day here to shock the football world this fall.

No.

Do I think they win between 4-6?

Yes.

Shawn Pastor pointed out one critical fact on his Owlsdaily.com website earlier this week. He noted that in each one of his head coaching jobs (Rowan, Delaware, Sam Houston State), Keeler exceeded the win total of the guy he succeeded. …. IN HIS FIRST YEAR on the new job.

Not a five-year plan, a six-month one.

That alone would have been enough for me to believe he would exceed Drayton’s three wins but there is too much other evidence to support that assumption now, three weeks before they put on the pads.

If I had an expendable $100,000 I would have bet that. Going through both my downstairs and upstairs couches, I found $50 so I called that in today.

There is a national perception about Temple football that works against the university in general but is a friend of those who have a keen knowledge of college football, coaching staffs and rosters.

That’s why the line is 3.5 wins.

It’s a line based on perception and not reality. For those who deal in reality, that’s why Temple football is the safest bet in sports.

Only wish I had that $100k so I could turn it into $200K.

Monday: The Kids Are Back in Town

01.20.25
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Keeler finally showing his recruiting hand

Jay Ducker appears to be the biggest addition so far for K.C. Keeler.
Ty Davis takes an INT to the house for Delaware.

A lot can change in 12 months.

This time in 2024, Temple football Chief of Staff Marcus Berry was talking about having a “good plan” to upgrade the roster.

We learned then that the plan was rooted in 1980s recruiting philosophy where immediate needs were filled by JUCO transfers. Not surprising because head coach Stan Drayton and DC Everett Withers were assistant and head coaches, respectively, back in the 80s and never changed with the times.

New Temple head coach K.C. Keeler was also coaching Rowan in the 1980s but the difference seems to be that Keeler has adjusted to the current reality of the transfer portal and finding talent at higher levels than JUCO.

New Temple LB Jayvant Brown talks about his offers coming out of high school.

As we’ve been preaching in this space for the last two years, the fastest way for Temple upgrade the roster is at levels higher than JUCO, with a special emphasis on disaffected but good P4 backups and FCS stars.

That appears to be the case with the latest additions.

The biggest addition is Jay Ducker, a proven 1,000-yard FBS back at Northern Illinois as a freshman who Keeler is familiar with because he was at Sam Houston State this year. Ducker, who is 5-10, 205, had 1,184 yards in just his freshman year for NIU.

Temple looks like it landed a pair of cornerback starters in Youngstown State’s Jaylen Castleberry and two-year Hampton starter Omar Ibrahim. Castleberry (6-0, 190) was an All-Missouri Conference performer where he had 50 tackles, including five tackles for losses.

On defense, the new 3-4 will be bolstered by a pair of speedy linebackers, Delaware transfer Ty Davis (6-3, 218) and Kentucky transfer Jayvant Brown (6-0, 225). Originally a Michigan State commit, Brown had offers from LSU and Alabama coming out of high school in Florida.

While Keeler also added a backup RB to an All-American at Stony Brook, and a starting quarterback at Robert Morris, those appear to be walk-ons for depth purposes.

The other guys are potential starters and there is not a JUCO in sight.

That’s a new plan better than the old one.