Possible Upgrade: Henry Baker to DC

Henry Baker and K.C. Keeler have the same views about how defensive football should be played.

Of all the interesting numbers coming out of a distressing 38-31 loss to winless Charlotte, a couple of things stood out for Temple football.

One, Temple was a 24-point favorite on Friday and that dropped to 16 points on Saturday.

That begs the question: What did Vegas know and when did they know it? That kind of stuff doesn’t happen in a vacuum.

For a school burned by the Hysier Miller basketball gambling scandal, that alone had to sting. Not saying there is any funny business going on, but it’s not a good look for Temple sports in general and Temple football in particular.

Something had to be done.

Then Temple head coach K.C. Keeler jettisons defensive coordinator Brian L. Smith and replaces him with Henry Baker and, in the same breath mentions that some Temple players could be dismissed.

Got to wonder what the hell is going on?

From this 30,000-feet view, what I saw was a lot of defensive players “giving up” on certain–not all–plays and those plays and players should be disciplined because I saw a Charlotte quarterback allowed to do whatever he wanted without impunity. I’d rather have had 10 roughing-the-passer penalties than allow that guy to do what he did against Temple. I’d like to see any Temple player who stopped rather than hitting the Charlotte quarterback dismissed, and I don’t care how good they are.

That’s up to the coaches, though.

Baker, in my mind, is an upgrade.

First, because after the UConn game that saw Huskies running free through the Temple secondary without impunity, Keeler mentioned that he walked down the hallway to the “DC coach’s office” each time he watched the game film and noted to Smith each time an Owl was in the wrong gap.

He got a lot of steps in and that can’t be good.

Our picks this week (above) and last week (below). Got off to a good start with Memphis beating ECU by “only” 7 points.

Then he sat down and talked to Baker and asked him what he thought and Baker’s answers were the same thing Keeler jotted down on his yellow legal pad while watching the film.

Baker and Keeler being in sympatico has to be a good thing and not a bad one. Presumably, Keeler and Smith did not see eye to eye in those walks to the DC office after UConn.

This happened before with Keeler and another current Temple coach. In 2009, current Temple special teams coach Brian Ginn was Keeler’s OC at Delaware and he was demoted after a 2-2 start.

After that game, Delaware went 4-1 and finished 6-5.

My guess is that most Temple fans will sign off winning the next four of five and accepting whatever happens at Memphis in the finale.

That’s where we are now climbing out of a hole none of us ever wanted to be in at the start of the season.

The fact that Keeler gave the first shovel to someone he trusts has to be encouraging. Will it work out? It’s better than sitting in that hole and yelling for help.

Monday: Game Week

How good is Temple? Pretty much mediocre

Owls probably picked the wrong starting quarterback for the Rhode Island game and that set Ajani Sheppard’s development back by two or three weeks.

After one of the worst losses in the last 20 years or so of Temple football, it’s very tempting to say that the Owls are a bad football team.

Head coach K.C. Keeler said as much after a 34-20 Homecoming Day loss vs. UConn.

Then the Owls went out and proved him right in a 38-31 loss to winless Charlotte. Maybe if he had said they are a great team Temple would have won, but I doubt it.

They probably aren’t as bad as a bad team and more like approaching mediocre now.

A “bad” football team doesn’t go to USF and beat a 4-0 team so we have to dispute that characterization. A bad football team doesn’t get a 42-28 lead at Toledo with 1:11 left on the clock. After that Toledo debacle, the Rockets beat a pretty good San Diego State team, 41-16. USF hung with current league favorite UTSA before blowing out Kent State, 29-2, on Saturday night. A bad football team doesn’t take Army to the wire, which Temple did.

That Temple team seems like a hundred years ago when it was only a couple of weeks ago.

Really, though, how good is Temple?

Our preseason predictions published on this website 3/5/26

Way back on this site on March 5th we predicted mediocre simply because the Owls didn’t get out and get a big-time quarterback. The very definition of mediocre is 6-6 and, while it doesn’t look like the Owls will get there because they lost to teams we predicted they would beat (Toledo, UConn and Charlotte), and only beat one of the teams we’d thought they lose to (USF).

By “big-time quarterback” I didn’t mean some Big 10 starter. I meant “a starter” who had “a decent record as a starting quarterback” at either the FBS, FCS or Division II level.

After one of the worst losses in the last 20 years or so of Temple football, it's very tempting to say that the Owls are a bad football team.

Head coach K.C. Keeler said as much after a 34-20 Homecoming Day loss vs. UConn.
Sam Brown V needs five 100-yard games for the Owls to win four and he’s got that kind of talent. If he stays inbounds here, the Owls beat Army, 24-21.

A year ago, the Owls were able to get an FBS starter, Gevani McCoy (Oregon State) to back up a former Big 10 starter, Evan Simon (Rutgers) and that’s pretty much the adult minimum daily requirement of quarterback vitamins K.C. Keeler and his staff must swallow going forward.

Because both Jaxon Smolik and Ajani Sheppard were learning how to be QBs while on the job, the Owls didn’t get much out of the position until Sheppard’s breakout game at Toledo.

It would have been nice to have a starter who already knew how to be a starter from the jump.

Sam Brown V might be the best back in the American Conference, but he needs to play all five of the remaining games to prove it and nothing that has happened so far suggests that is in the cards.

The other problems–defense and special teams–we did not anticipate.

Because Keeler has developed a deserved reputation of a “stand-up guy” we accepted his claims that JoJo Bermudez was the “best punt returner in the country” and that his returning offensive line couldn’t block his defensive line.

Bermudez has not been the best punt returner in the country and what has turned out to be closer to the truth was that every other offensive line could do what his own OL couldn’t do in spring ball–block his defensive line. They’ve gotten nothing from kick returns with a straight-line sprinter. Maybe they should try a guy like Tylik Mitchell back there because Mitchell has a knack to find holes in addition to his 10.7 100-meter speed. Mitchell gained nearly 2,000 yards and scored 25 touchdowns as a big-time running back in North Carolina two years ago. The current guy taking back kickoffs has no such resume.

The Owls have done better than a couple of our preseason predictions–playing Penn State to a 27-9 loss (we said it would be 35-14) and beating USF (we said it would be a 55-24 loss). They have done worse against Toledo, UConn and Charlotte–which we all listed as close victories.

Therin lies the rub.

For the Owls to get to the mediocre spot we had them at, they are going to have to steal four out of the remaining five games. The good news is that there isn’t a world-beater left on the schedule, including Memphis. For example, Navy and ECU are nowhere near as good as we thought they would be and Army is better. Fortunately, Army is in the rear-view mirror and a lesser Navy team is a short road trip.

The bad news is that all five of those teams will probably be favored over the Owls right now.

The best hope is that a new defensive coordinator can re-energize the defense and that Sheppard has turned into that winning quarterback we hoped to get in the offseason.

Hope never got me to a bowl game but that’s all we have now.

Friday: Possible Upgrade

Monday: Game Week

No defense for keeping Brian L. Smith through bye week

No better time to get rid of Brian L. Smith than before the bye week.
Nick Rapone’s daughter went to Temple and he loves Temple football and Temple players through the years love him.

Pretty tempting to say the season is over for Temple football.

It might be true if inaction is the reaction to the abysmal performance of the defense in a 38-31 loss to winless Charlotte. It might be true anyway.

The defense has shown signs of being poorly coached all year and that reached a culmination on Saturday when it couldn’t stop the worst team in (FBS) college football.

Brian L. Smith has to take responsibility for that. Or head coach K.C. Keeler himself has to make him.

No more Mr. Nice Guy. At least one head needs to roll.

Someone like Nick Rapone is available and, if anyone can get the former Temple DC to come out of retirement, it is head coach K.C. Keeler, who was head coach at Delaware when Rapone was the best DC in FCS football.

Even if they can’t get Rapone now, they can get him in the offseason but the immediate move to send a message to the team that Keeler is serious is to get rid of Smith now.

Who can replace him even on a temporary basis?

Well, Keeler himself might have to do it if there is no option inside the staff. Keeler himself mentioned that he watched film all last week and had “walk down to the DC’s office” every time he saw an Owl out of his gap. Keeler must have gotten a lot of steps in because it was apparent that happened on almost every play against UConn. Keeler’s specialty is defense (he almost made the Eagles as a linebacker) so he sees things Smith doesn’t.

Had to wonder if Smith’s response was “good point, I didn’t know that” or “yeah, I bleeped up” or, worse, “I don’t know where to put them.”

With the Huskies being a better team, some of that can be excused.

It can’t be excused against a team that lost to The Citadel.

Keeler can save a lot of walking from his office to the DC’s office by replacing the DC tonight with someone he trusts more.

Keeler himself said before the season that his defensive line was going to be the “story of the year” in the league so Keeler knows talent is not the reason for the poor performance.

The scheme is.

The story of the year is that Brian L. Smith makes Everett Withers look like Buddy Ryan and that’s not a good story. A better story would be getting rid of him.

That story needs to be written and written soon.

Monday: Just how good is Temple?

TU-Charlotte: Psychological thriller

From a football standpoint, Charlotte at Temple doesn’t figure to be a thriller.

The guy who bitches and moans about Temple attendance watches on TV from his home in Coral Gables, Fla. Bitch and moan now because the crowd on Saturday is going to be half of this thanks to that disappointing loss to UConn.

One team is 2-4 and the other team is 0-6 and the 2-4 team won, 49-14, on the road last year against this year’s 0-6 team. The 2-4 team is Temple and supposedly a better version of the 49-14 winning team and the 0-6 team is supposedly a worse version of the Charlotte team a year ago.

That’s the physical part.

Not thrilling.

The psychological part is more interesting.

The team with the presumed better talent, Temple, has to be questioning itself after a 34-20 loss to a team, UConn, it was favored against. That came on the heels of losing a 42-28 lead at Toledo with less than two minutes left and losing, 49-48, in overtime. Then the Owls had to be thinking “how are we going to lose now?” after getting a 17-14 lead against Army.

Instead of the defensive brain trust attacking on run blitzes to get Army off schedule with TFLs, it sat back passively and watched Army march downfield and win, 21-17.

If this gets close, the Owls have to have that question in the back of their minds.

The UConn loss and the impending bad weather means that the crowd of 21,112 last week will be closer to 11,112 this week. I saw a lot of Temple fans I see only once a year last week say “same old Temple” and “I won’t be back” due to that disappointing loss.

Rather have Friday’s weather than Saturday’s.

So the guy who complains about attendance every week on Owlsdaily.com should get that kind of bitching and moaning out of his system now. We’ve had super nice weather for every Temple home game and the bill has come due now because the high temperature will be in the low 50s with a wind of 20mph. It’s a two-glove and one coat game after being a season of shorts and T-shirts so far at Lincoln Financial Field.

Our picks this week. We got off to a good start with not only UAB covering but winning outright.

That’s why it’s imperative for this Owls team do what last year’s Owls team did: Put it away early and get some of those “Prodigal Son” fans back for the rest of the season.

Easy?

Maybe.

Maybe not.

This is the same Charlotte team that lost to Ole Miss, 41-9, and lost to a then unbeaten Appalachian State team, 26-21. App State beat ECU and lost by 10 at North Carolina State.

Charlotte is capable of hanging around and Temple must take that capability away.

There is also a psychological element on the other side of the field, too.

In this day and age of the transfer portal and NIL, how many 49ers have checked out on the season and are looking to get out of there and are not totally committed to the cause? Got to think at least a few. Or, the other way to look at it, is that these guys have practiced together for nine months and are as committed to their brothers as the Temple guys are committed to their brothers.

Because there is no Evan Simon brother, doubt it will be the same 49-14 it was a year ago. One of the themes of this site has been it never replaced Simon with a Simon or Gevani McCoy with a Gevani McCoy so the expectations have to be recalibrated.

For now, I will take 30-14 and hope against hope for something like 56-7.

Saturday Night: Charlotte Game Analysis

Monday: How Good is Temple?

Friday: A Possible Upgrade

Monday: Game Week

UConn loss: Two steps back after a step forward

Ajani Sheppard is just as capable of throwing this pass while rolling out that he is as a sitting target.

Going into a game on Saturday at Lincoln Financial Field, Team A brought in a team of 87 mercenaries, returned one starter from a year ago and a new head coach in a first season of trying to implement a new culture.

Team B returned all of its eligible starters, had only a few mercenaries and was in the second year under the current most successful head coach in Division I football and the culture had already been established.

Given that outline, Team A, UConn, didn’t figure to win but it beat Team B, Temple, 34-20.

Sometimes logic spits out a winner and sometimes as Mr. Spock said on the old Star Trek series, logic does not compute.

Saturday was one of those days as Temple lost as a favorite for the first time since Sept. 21, 2019. That day in the last decade a Buffalo team that would finish 8-5 beat a Temple team that would also finish 8-5.

Marinate that for a second: Temple has not lost as a favorite this decade.

Until Saturday.

It would take a freaking miracle for this Temple team to finish 8-5 after starting 2-4.

Let’s not sugarcoat it.

After taking one step forward in a big win at South Florida a week ago, the loss to UConn represents a step back and an argument could be made it was two steps back.

There should have been something to be said for stability, continuity and culture and that statement should have been made by Temple, not UConn.

Instead, what we’ve learned if you bring in the right kind of mercenaries, talent can overcome both coaching and culture.

Maybe that’s just college football circa 2026.

This is the line waiting to get into the stadium yesterday. Unfortunately, due to the loss, we won’t see a crowd like this until next Homecoming

If so, that’s a sad reality Temple is going to have to accept going forward.

After the loss, Temple coach K.C. Keeler blamed it on turnovers and, on the surface, he was right. But it was shocking how the defense was so out of position in so many plays a week after being in position in so many plays.

That responsibility has to rest with DC Brian L. Smith and by extension Keeler himself. If this continues, Keeler will have to make the hard decision no head coach wants to make and jettison a coordinator. Hint: Chuck Heater is available. Temple is just not getting enough pressure on the quarterback. That is painfully obvious. The Owls still try to get to the quarterback with a four-man rush. That’s not working. If it doesn’t work going forward, they need to bring five. If that doesn’t work, they need to bring six. Where is this great defensive line we’ve been told about for six months?

I haven’t seen it yet.

Last week, 17 points was enough to win but this week 20 points wasn’t.

To be a winning team going forward with the players on this defense, 20 points should be enough to win on any given afternoon.

That said, the offense doesn’t get a pass here.

Offensive coordinator Tyler Walker called two trick plays that worked, the first play of the season against Rhode Island and Saturday’s pass from Colin Chase to Peter Clarke for a touchdown. Somebody has got to whisper in Walker’s ear that there is no NCAA rule that limits a team to one trick play a game, nor one that limits said team to two a season.

Personnel use, to me, is questionable as well.

As good as Keveun Mason is, he’s no Hunter Smith and Mason fumbled in a big spot and Hunter Smith did not and maybe that should cost Mason his backup job.

More Hunter Smith if Sam Brown V is not available and, at this point, you’ve got to wonder if Brown will ever play. They keep telling us he will be available for this game and that game and he only gets available for one game (Toledo). This is a little like having a Ferrari and keeping it in the garage because you are afraid of hitting a fire hydrant backing out of the driveway.

That’s got to change going forward. Temple has a quality Big 10 back and you’ve got to wonder if they are saving him for a bowl game that might never come. Rub some dirt on it and get him out there.

Also, stop trying to make Ajani Sheppard a pocket passer. He’s a rollout passer who will drive defenses crazy going forward by rolling out and presenting a running threat, bringing up the safeties and linebackers to stop that threat and dumping easy throws over them to receivers running free through the secondary.

Making him a pocket passer risks two things. Him getting hit in the pocket and him overthrowing a 6-6 tight end on two-point conversion to win a game.

Keeler says the Owls lost by not playing clean but playing clean and coaching clean go hand in hand.

The Owls have a lot of talent but from where I sit, I don’t think the talent is being utilized optimally. That’s got to be at least half of the post-mortem coming out of this loss.

Monday: A Hall of Fame Night

Looks like Sheppard had his Lou Gehrig moment

Sheer joy in the Owls’ locker room after a couple of bitter defeats. This feeling could get contagious.

(Photos Courtesy Temple football)

Back in 1925, a pretty decent first baseman named Wally Pipp took himself out of a New York Yankee baseball game and was replaced by a guy named Lou Gehrig.

That replacement went onto play 2,000-straight baseball games and Pipp found himself out of a job.

CBS Sports Tom Fornelli and his 124,000 twitter followers have noticed Ajani Sheppard

Temple quarterback Ajani Sheppard may have done exactly what Gehrig did as Jaxon Smolik played the role of Pipp and exited the Toledo game through no fault of his own (injury). At the time, it looked like the status quo that Temple had through the first three games would be maintained once Smolik returned and the two would alternate the starting quarterback job until one took charge.

Something happened after that first series in Toledo. Sheppard took charge of the huddle and the game and probably will be the only quarterback all year to put up 48 points on a decent Toledo team.

Unless Sheppard takes himself out of a game, it doesn’t look like Smolik is going to get that opportunity and that’s a good thing, not a bad thing, from Temple’s perspective.

The status quo–alternating quarterbacks who provided little production in the first couple of games–wasn’t working. Temple needed a guy at that position capable of throwing three touchdown passes in any single game and now appears to not only have that guy but someone who can add nearly 100 yards and a couple more touchdowns on the ground as well. The Owls have had some pretty good quarterbacks in the post-Matt Rhule era (Anthony Russo, Frank Nutile, E.J. Warner and Evan Simon) but nobody who could tuck it away and run like this guy.

Now the production has amped up and Gehrig, err, Sheppard looks like he’s on his way to becoming a star in the American Conference.

Sheppard might be no Gehrig, but he’s hit his share of home runs since taking over in the Toledo game and that bodes well for a lot of Temple winning going forward.

In many aspects, Sheppard has proven to be the playmaker Evan Simon never was because offensive coordinator Tyler Walker now has the tools needed to execute his vision of the Temple offense–which is to put pressure on defenses with a guy who throws well enough but runs even better.

Walker had to dial that back last year with a pocket passer like Simon and, while the results were OK, the ceiling was never this high. When linebackers and safeties have to inch up to the line of scrimmage to account for Sheppard’s athleticism, the Owls’ quarterback can take a step back and hit receivers running free through the secondary.

That could result in Sheppard, JoJo Bermudez, Colin Chase, Peter Clarke and a deep halfback room led by Sam Brown turning the Lincoln Financial Field scoreboard into an adding machine more often than not.

Sheppard won’t play 2,000-straight games for the Owls, but we’ll take 20 or so and sign for the results right now.

Friday: UConn Preview

Saturday Near Midnight: UConn Game Analysis

Temple 17, USF 13: As Huge as Huge Can Be

An argument can be made that college football, really all sports, are as much mental as physical.

For those Temple football fans (raising my hand here), there was at least a thought way in the back of our heads that the problem with our beloved Owls was more mental than physical.

No more.

After Saturday’s 17-13 win over unbeaten South Florida, that thought can be permanently disabused.

The Owls with a game on the line against the last unbeaten team in the league made the plays that needed to be made to pull out a win.

The “best punt returner in the country” can do best punt returner things as a wide receiver.

How important was that?

After losing a 42-28 lead at Toledo and a 17-14 lead at home against Army in the last two minutes, the Owls might have been thinking “how are we going to lose now?”

(At least that was the sentiment among a good percentage of the fan base.)

Instead, the kids shed any negatively and forced the issue and won.

Now everything they ever wanted is still on the table.

The American Conference is still in play because the Army game is an outlier. Army not only lost to USF but it lost to Louisiana Tech tonight. That system the Cadets run is hard to beat but it is not unbeatable and other American Conference schools will be able to figure it out, just like USF did.

It is not likely a spot in the league championship game will come down to a tiebreaker between Army and Temple and because of that, a conference championship spot is still in play for the Owls. The Owls now have the tiebreaker with USF if they both finish in a tie for first.

That’s huge. As huge as huge can be.

There is much hard work ahead and, while Ajani Sheppard’s pocket passing can be maddening at times, it is a proven fact in college football that MOST (not all) of the great teams in this sport have a quarterback who can both run and pass.

Sheppard’s forte seems to be running and passing while on the run.

Temple’s brain trust now knows that and it’s the job of this highly paid coaching staff to put Sheppard into the best position he’s able to help this team win going forward.

That’s not as a pocket passer but as a guy who can pump fake, and either take it down and run or stop on a dime and hit wide receivers getting seams created by linebackers and safeties who are forced to honor Sheppard’s running ability.

What does that mean in the future?

A lot of games where the Owls score many more than 17 points against conference opponents and a defense that can feed off the success of the offense.

The Owls might not have had that in their minds going into Saturday but that’s certainly the case coming out of Saturday.

The rest of the season should be a lot of fun because this team now knows they can finish the job.

Monday: Temple’s Wally Pipp Moment

Friday: UConn Preview

Time for the DL to Live Up to Press Clippings

Nobody got better reviews through four weeks of spring practice and five more weeks of summer practice than the Temple defensive line.

“I think our defensive line is going to be one of the biggest stories in our conference,” Temple head coach K.C. Keeler said midway through August. “We thought we had a good offensive line with everyone returning but there were a lot of times our offensive line couldn’t block our defensive line.”

Something has happened since.

The entire DL–with the exception of some plucky first-half play against Penn State–has been on one side of the milk carton that includes Temple tight end Peter Clarke on the other.

Both need to be located by Saturday night. The big difference is that Clarke is a proven playmaker once you get the ball into his hands, but the defensive line has only shown to be practice warriors.

So far.

We haven’t seen the playmaking ability from the DL yet this year that we saw from Clarke last year.

Toledo was able to block the DL. So was Army.

There are signs, though, that South Florida won’t be able to do the same thing in an ESPNU matchup (7:30 p.m.) on Saturday night at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

For Temple to taste victory, the first chapter of that “story of the year” Keeler was talking about must be written now.

The USF offensive line’s Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade of 53.6, ranks No. 121 in the country and the Bulls haven’t faced a single defensive line with the talent of Temple’s. Even in their win against Army, the Cadets were playing without any starters on the DL returning from last year.

About a 60 percent chance of rain on Saturday night.

For the season, USF quarterback Michael Van Buren has been sacked eight times, six times last week against Bowling Green and the Falcons are one of the worst teams in America.

Time for the DL to both get off the ball and get to the quarterback and also continue to stuff the run the way it has all season.

If the Owls exceed those six sacks that BG was able to have, Temple will win.

If they get only a tepid pass rush and hurries instead of sacks, the Owls will lose.

Time for the defensive line to put their money where coach Keeler’s mouth is and that time is now. Nothing helps out a secondary which has struggled better than putting the bad guy’s quarterback on his ass, which often leads to tipped ball interceptions and fumbles that go the other way.

Defensive havoc needs to happen and it needs to happen now.

It would be nice to have a big lead and turn it into a bigger lead for a change.

Keeler is not prone to “coachspeak” nor is he overblowing their ability. Remember, this was a Temple offensive line (returning pretty much intact) that blocked well enough to put up 515 yards of total offense against Navy last year and Navy was a team USF lost to a year ago. If that Temple OL couldn’t block this Temple DL in practice, that had to be something Keeler saw on his own.

That USF team who lost to Navy had a better QB, a better head coach and better overall personnel–many of whom are starting at Auburn now–than this USF team.

If Temple is able to get seven sacks or more, Temple wins. Even with fewer sacks and a solid effort against the run, the Owls are in good shape.

You can’t write the story of the year without a compelling first paragraph and Saturday night is not a good time to get writer’s block.

Saturday (approaching midnight): Temple-USF Game Analysis

Now for the good news: Computer has Owls running the table

Nothing changed the college football prediction game more than the NIL and the transfer portal.

It’s almost impossible to predict the outcome of any game with the possible exception of a big-time powerhouse like Pitt going against a small-time team like Bucknell.

Bookmakers in Vegas gave Bucknell 54.5 points and, while that seemed high, the Panthers easily covered, winning 59-0. Thought that number was high, but I ran it through this website’s simulator about an hour before the game and the first result was Pitt winning, 56-0.

Pretty damn close.

Keeler appears to be saying this to Walker: “You do realize that we’re allowed to throw the ball to the tight end, don’t you?”

That seemed pretty reliable, so I worked a model of Temple’s remaining games through, taking only the first result and applying it here. Of course, if this were 100 percent reliable, they wouldn’t have to play the games. Nobody in a computer simulator sees, say, a North Carolina State quarterback failing to secure a ball while going for a safety and lose.

This one simulator that nailed the Pitt score has very good news for Temple football fans, though. I ran each and every remaining game through the simulator run by the website and it had the Owls winning every single game left on the schedule regular-season schedule and that would mean the Owls would finish 9-3.

I know.

Hard to believe Harry. I don’t know if you can feed the computer information about both Owls’ quarterbacks locking on their primary receivers nor the defense not blitzing enough, but I will sign for this right now.

From that hard drive’s lips to God’s ears but here are the results.

Temple at South Florida _ Simulator has the Owls handing the host Bulls their first loss, 42-35. Conversely, Bill Connelly’s ESPN ratings has USF ranked No. 55 and Temple ranked No. 92.

UConn at Temple _ Simulator has the Owls coming away with a 32-20 win. Connelly’s ESPN rankings have the Huskies ranked No. 85 but weighs three points for home teams so he makes the Owls a slight favorite.

Temple at East Carolina _ Shockingly, the computer has the Owls avenging a 45-14 loss with a 30-11 win. Connelly has the Pirates has a solid touchdown favorite and currently ranked No. 79.

Temple at Navy _ Computer has the Owls winning 37-7. Connelly has Navy currently ranked No. 86 and a 3-point favorite.

UAB at Temple _ Computer has the Owls winning, 30-13. Connelly also has the Owls winning.

Rice at Temple _ Computer doesn’t have the Owls playing very well against Connelly’s No. 119-ranked Owls, but still has Temple winning, 17-3.

Temple at Memphis _ Computer has Temple winning, 34-12, at Memphis, coming up with their most dominating win at Memphis since Matt Rhule’s first year when the Owls won there, 41-21. Connelly has the Tigers currently ranked No. 63 and a 10-point winner.

The win at Memphis knocks the Tigers out of the championship game and puts the Owls in the title game against either Army or Tulsa, both on the road.

That game will come on Dec. 5, meaning the Owls have all of October and November to come up with a way to close up the A gap in a rematch in Army and devise a few run blitzes to get the Cadets off schedule. Or repeat what they did at Tulsa last year.

Me?

I don’t have a computer in my gut but my gut is telling me 6-6 with wins over UConn, UAB, Rice, Navy and ECU. Hope I’m wrong and the simulations are correct.

Can’t see winning at USF like the simulator does but, if Bowling Green can give the Bulls a game, the Owls can win down there. This would be as good as any a time to start throwing the ball to an All-American tight end.

If Temple wins on Saturday, 42-35, I’m going to change that 6-6 prediction to 9-3. The computer will have won me over.

Friday: USF Preview

Temple football: It’s Getting Late Early

Here we are about to play the fifth game of the season, and the theme of K.C. Keeler’s post-game press conferences the last two weeks were that the Temple kids battled.

The truth is that the Owls of a year ago got pushed around for a closing 10-minute drive a year ago at Army and, on Friday, they allowed a killer six-minute drive for the win when they went up 17-14, and a lot of those plays were with eight men in the box. (It might have been an eight-minute drive if the Owls didn’t wisely their timeouts on defense.)

Evan Simon had a knack of finding secondary receivers if his initial target was covered. The Owls’ current QBs appear to lock on the primary receiver.

Yet they lost both games.

At some point, battling will not be enough and we’re about to reach that point when the Owls go on the road for their next game in South Florida.

Yes, the same South Florida team that not only “battled” Army but beat them. How come they can battle and win and we battle and lose?

I’d rather fight a skillful retreat and win than battle hard and lose but maybe that’s me.

The Owls had one job after losing a pair of one-point games to Army and Navy last year and that was to turn those one-point losses into wins, preferably by more than one point. From roster construction to game planning, they needed to figure out a way to turn those 3-to-4 yard gains Army and Navy live by to 1 and 2 yard gains. They didn’t figure that out.

Instead, they turned one half of that two-headed monster into a four-point loss to Army.

Keeler has said the roster is better, the team is deeper than last year but if the results are the same 5-7 does it really matter?

Death by a thousand paper cuts a year ago and death by a thousand paper cuts this year are pretty much the same.

Hard to see the improvement when the ledger at this point says 1-3. Just to get to 5-7–which I would consider unacceptable–the Owls have to split the last eight games of the season.

That’s why it’s getting late early. Pretty soon the math won’t be there for a winning season.

Last year the team started 5-2 and faltered late. Maybe this year’s team is built to finish 5-2 after faltering early.

You’ve got to hope so but there are several concerning signs out there.

One, they no longer appear to have a quarterback with the savvy of Evan Simon, a guy who was able to toss 25 touchdown passes against only two interceptions. Simon was particularly adept at finding mismatches in the secondary, often to secondary receivers, and a reliable safety valve was Peter Clarke. Simon was the Steve Carlton of the Owls and Clarke was the Tim McCarver, Simon’s personal catcher.

Now you might as well put Clarke’s face on a milk carton that’s how MIA he has been this season through no fault of his own. On the final drive of the game, Clarke was wide open over the middle at the 10 and Ajani Sheppard forced the ball into the end zone to JoJo Bermudez, where he was covered by three Army guys. If I had to choose one Temple All-American I’d rather not see play, it would be punter Dante Atton over Peter Clarke. Instead, we see too much of Atton (no offense, literally) and not enough of Clarke.

Two, the much-praised defensive line, which Keeler called 10 deep, was pushed around in the same fashion last year’s lesser praised defensive line of guys like Sekou Kromah, Khalil Poteat and Cameron Stewart were.

Maybe it’s better but the proof is in the pudding. Or the putting of the bad guy’s quarterback on his ass, which we haven’t seen much of so far.

Three, the Owls were supposed to have a reliable field goal kicker in Carl Hardin and the stats back that up because Hardin went 11-for-14 last year. Yet two of the misses came in one-point losses to the academies, one from 45 and the other from 38. On Saturday, he hit the crossbar from 42 yards out. Had he hit that one early, he would have lined up for another makeable game-winner. Rather have him miss the 52-yarder at Georgia Tech last year in a 42-24 loss and hit the 38-yarder in a 31-30 loss to Navy last year.

They say the best predictor of future success is past success and, judging the 2026 Owls so far, the future doesn’t appear to be all too bright.

Battling is OK but winning is better. The winning needs to start now because it’s later than most would think.

Monday: The Breakdown