The New Reality: Is it sustainable?

From my seat at the Army game this year, I decided that Temple is going to have to find a way to beat the academies on a regular basis to have any success in this league. I was only able to attend due to the generosity of TFF readership. If you want me to attend a road game in 2026, please consider a small contribution today.

After watching one of the classic Fiesta Bowl games of all time, there is a reminder out there that not all that long ago Temple beat one of the two teams in that game by a couple touchdowns.

UConn was that team and Temple beat them, 30-16, a few weeks before that.

Both teams finished the regular season the same 8-4 record but the Huskies ended up in the Fiesta Bowl and the Owls bowless because one team was in the Big East (replacing Temple) and the other in the MAC.

That was exactly 15 years ago and college football has changed a lot since then.

Not for the better.

Short answer for players: You’re as fucked as the fans are and probably more because they have a regular job and you don’t. My advice: If you have a scholarship, room, board and cost of attendance, please keep it and stay at the school who showed you loyalty in the first place.

Temple was able to beat a Fiesta Bowl team back then because the playing field was relatively even as the Owls were able to identify top high school talent and keep those guys through all four years.

Now, no matter how good a job K.C. Keeler does on that end, he risks (and no doubt will) lose the best of that talent either the next year or the year after that.

The players don’t seem to notice how they are being played for suckers and that’s that sad thing. According to Rivals247.com, 3,156 players entered the portal last year at this time and only 1,511 found new spots. What happened to the others guys? In chasing riches, they ended up out on the street and losing a very valuable scholarship, room, board and cost of attendance … which, in the G5, usually averages about $3,500 a player.

The players (among them, a lot of really good ones) who lose it all in chasing the money and end up out on the street would be a terrific story for Dateline, 60 Minutes or any of those other news magazine shows but nobody seems interested in that cautionary story.

That leaves the fans holding the bag for players who make incredibly bad decisions due to predatory agents.

When you lose the fans, you lose the sport.

I don’t think it’s sustainable because North Texas lost its entire team after going 11-1 and will have to rebuild all over again.

Temple, on the other hand, is on the rise but what happens if the Owls overachieve and go 11-1?

They likely lose the entire team and start over again.

It’s not just a Temple problem or a North Texas problem. It’s a Tulane problem. It’s a Memphis problem. It’s a USF problem.

Ironically, it’s not an Army or Navy problem because those two schools have the Kryptonite that kills the NIL and transfer portal.

Yet for any team to win consistently in this league they have to figure out a way to beat Army and Navy by loading the box and selling out for the run. That usually goes against most coaching instincts.

And, after doing that, have a contingency plan on how to rebuild quicker than the competition.

Unless Congress acts and protects the smaller schools, that means a lot of winning seasons followed by a lot of losing ones and a wash, rinse and repeat cycle. Hard to build a loyal home fanbase that way.

Do you see a Congress that protects the big guy in other endeavors ever sticking up for the little guy in college football?

I don’t.

To Congress, I say: Surprise me.

Monday: Temple’s Secret Weapon

Our predictions the last 2 years: One off, both ways

They should be breaking out the balls for winter workouts very soon.

One year we sold the Owls short. The next we oversold them.

By one game each year.

So close but so far away.

That’s the prediction business in a nutshell.

Having watched the final preseason of Stan Drayton’s Temple career, we wrote in this space that the Owls would finish 2-10 in May of 2024. We based that on Forrest Brock winning the job. When Evan Simon took over, the Owls got better but still not good enough.

They finished 3-9.

On May 23, 2025 we mapped out how each game would go and this was shockingly close to how the first few games turned out.

This year we saw what new head coach K.C. Keeler was doing (upgraded key areas like the DL, RB and backup QB), and upped that win total to six. The justification not only was the roster upgrade, but the fact that an established head coach and coordinators would eliminate the pre-snap penalties that killed Drayton, OC Danny Langsdorf and DC Everett Withers.

That largely happened and two single-point losses to the academies ruined the Owls’ chances of finishing 7-5.

On Memorial Day Weekend, we wrote the Owls would finish 6-6.

They finished 5-7.

We predicted a 24-10 win at UMass (it was 42-10) and a 48-7 win over Howard (it was 55-7). We also predicted a 34-14 loss to Oklahoma (42-3) and a 38-7 loss to Georgia Tech (it was 42-24).

Geoff Collins had the Owls practicing in the snow (2017). Fortunately, Keeler has a state-of-the-art indoor facility at 15th and Montgomery to weather any storms.

We predicted Temple would beat UTSA, 24-21 (remarkably close because the Owls won, 27-21), a 31-21 loss to Navy (Owls lost a game that will live in ignominy, 32-31).

We predicted Temple would beat Tulsa, 34-21 (Owls won, 31-30) and Charlotte, 28-14 (it was 48-14).

The one game we got really wrong was the East Carolina game. We thought the Owls would win that one, 28-20, but they lost, 45-14.

We predicted Army would beat Temple by three (it was by one), Tulane would beat Temple by 11 (it was 23) and North Texas would beat Temple by 14 (it was 27).

Not bad, except for a couple of outliers, Keeler and his staff outperformed the scores we expected. The bottom line is the number of wins.

We will be watching the offseason acquisitions, then attending Cherry and White and coming up with game-by-game predictions around Memorial Day. They need to find a proven starting quarterback in the transfer portal and then slowly work the future (Lamar Best) into the lineup as the season goes along.

By then, we should have a good handle on how things should play out.

Friday: Is it sustainable?

Monday: Temple’s Secret Weapon

Friday (1/15): Best Available

What the Trinidad Chambliss story tells Temple fans

On the surface, Trinidad Chambliss’ story doesn’t say much about Temple football.

Underneath the surface, though, it tells everything about the future.

Why?

Because Temple did a very much un-Temple-like thing last February in offering Ferris State national Division II championship quarterback Trinidad Chambliss $300,000 to come here and compete for a starting job.

He accepted, and the Friday press conference was all set before Ole Miss swooped in with a $600,000 backup offer.

Bad news for Temple but good news for Ole Miss because he eventually earned the starting job and put his Rebels into the national semifinals.

What does it say about Temple?

It tells you that both head coach K.C. Keeler and General Manager Clayton Barnes have keen eyes for talent. There is a Trinidad Chambliss out there–whether he’s in JUCO, Division II or FCS–and the same eyes that saw the Ferris State quarterback will identify the next Temple one.

Maybe not Chambliss good. Maybe better. Maybe worse but there are no maybes about the eyes scouting that future Temple signal-caller.

“Their quarterback is just incredible,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said.

Yeah, that’s what both Keeler and Barnes identified on the film a year ago today.

They were excited to get Chambliss and Chambliss was excited to come here before Ole Miss swooped in and got him.

Shit happens.

One team’s shit (Temple’s) is another team’s title (Ole Miss) but that doesn’t diminish the talent evaluation skills of Keeler or Barnes and that’s where Temple is at an advantage in this transfer portal season. Another thought is that Temple is so committed to winning in football that it put its money ($300,000) where its mouth was. Keeler knew that Evan Simon needed some competition and, while he whiffed on the first choice (Chambliss), he hit a solid double into the gap on his second (Gevani McCoy). If that’s not enough, here’s another Keeler/Barnes collaboration: They almost got Drew Mestemaker to commit to Sam Houston before Mestemaker decided to follow a high school teammate to North Texas.

Eye for talent indeed.

Four eyes to be exact.

They made a significant investment (roughly $100,000) in McCoy. They didn’t ask me for a contribution to cover the NIL but, if had the extra cash, I would have forked it over. That’s how much confidence I have in them.

Think about this: If Simon went down, Temple goes from 5-7 without him to 1-11 without a McCoy. If Simon goes down, and McCoy is the backup, Temple wins the same number of games.

That’s how this thing is supposed to work with a great head coach. One injury to a key player shouldn’t take out your season.

Nobody knows more than the CEO and the GM that Temple needs a Chambliss, Simon and McCoy.

Nearly getting Chambliss last year but getting thisclose means they will get someone good enough to compete for an American Conference title thisyear.

Those are the guys working the film room and that’s enough for me.

It should be for every Temple fan.

Monday: Reviewing Our Predictions

Why the death of bowls may be premature …

Since about the time Temple was caught with its pants down on an invitation to play in the Birmingham Bowl (today at 2 p.m.), the conventional thinking was these so-called minor bowls are dead.

If you put $10 on North Texas laying the 7, as I did, this hurt. Otherwise, a terrific game.

As Mark Twain once said, “Reports of my death have been premature.”

At least that’s the way I see it.

Yes, plenty of 5-7 teams joined Temple in turning down bowl invitations, but hopefully the Owls learned a lesson from the whole fiasco.

The next time the Owls are 5-7–which is hopefully a long ways away–hang by the phone and be prepared to say yes. (Long ways away meaning hopefully the Owls have winning seasons from now on…)

Lessons are to be gained by the experience.

Sort of like kicking a field goal with about 20 seconds left to beat Navy at Homecoming. But that’s was a story for another day.

Today, we celebrate the bowls because, from what I’ve seen so far, the games have been terrific and, at least from an American Conference standpoint, there haven’t been as many opt-outs as I thought might.

North Texas’ best quarterback and running back decided to participate in a 49-47 win over San Diego State.

Louisville and Toledo cared enough to get involved in a donnybrook knock/down, drag/out fight.

Hawaii coach Timmy Chang eschewed what would have been a sure field goal from the best kicker in the country (nicknamed The Tokyo Toe) despite having to use his backup quarterback on the last play of the game because the starter had to come out for one play due to an injury. All that backup did was throw a game-winning touchdown pass.

The crowd of 15,000 at Hawaii–which looked bigger because the Rainbow Warriors have an appropriate-size stadium–went crazy. By comparison, Temple had twice as many fans for Homecoming and while it was a decent atmosphere, they rattled around in a 70,000-seat stadium that was never built for college football.

ECU got absolutely screwed on an inadvertent whistle but survived to beat Pitt.

Terrific drama all around in the bowl games and those were just a few.

In my mind, much more compelling television than shows I never watch (The Batchelor, The Real Wives of Atlanta, etc.) and, because I love college football in general and G5 football in particular, I get a kick out of every time a G5 team beats a P4 one. Plus, the sports programming on ESPN next months shifts to wrestling, volleyball and the kind of bowling where you put a couple of fingers in a heavy ball and roll it down a lane to hit pins.

That’s the kind of bowling I hope goes the way of Mark Twain.

I hope the college football version sticks around for a while.

Friday: What the Chambliss story tells Temple fans

Monday (1/5): Grading Our 2025 Predictions

Friday (1/7): Is it sustainable?

Can Mason McKenzie realize Temple is the place for him?

Over a month later, Temple’s feelings about Mason McKenzie remain the same.

The Saginaw Valley quarterback has been the No. 1 recruiting transfer portal target regardless of position for K.C. Keeler’s Owls, but other suitors have squeezed in since.

Boston College fan not excited about Mason.

Notably Boston College.

Certainly, the allure of playing in a Power 4 league is something to consider but there are no doubt other considerations for Mason.

One, playing for a team who gave him (in his words) “a lot of love” and, two, quarterbacking what would certainly be a contender for the American Conference championship. It is a roster that Keeler has been largely able to keep intact and a culture that rarely exists in modern day college football–a lot of guys willing to stay and turn a 5-7 program into a championship one.

The only evidence we have for that is Keeler was able to turn a 3-9 roster into a 5-7 one in his first season, only three points from being a 7-5 one.

That all has to be weighed against competing against Miami, Clemson, and Georgia Tech on a regular basis in the AAC. That also involves getting beat up (and sacked) on a regular basis and not able to show the talent demonstrated on a weekly basis at Saginaw Valley the last couple of years.

From this perspective, not a tough choice but we will admit we’re wearing Cherry and White glasses.

Obviously, from Mason’s, it’s a tougher call because he hasn’t committed yet.

Hmm.

An offensive line that will be able to protect him enough so he can show his talent vs. a team regularly playing defensive lines that overwhelm a bottom-feeding ACC team?

That’s the decision Mason has to make the next couple of weeks.

Mason McKenzie

Another consideration is Mason has a chance to play for the winningest active Division I head coach in Keeler and that’s not an opportunity afforded for many college quarterbacks.

Also, Temple lost its top two quarterbacks (Evan Simon and Gevani McCoy) to graduation so the path to being No. 1 starter is wide open.

Mason probably had a lot of nice gifts under the tree yesterday but the one wrapped in the Cherry and White paper probably shouldn’t be ignored.

A Temple scholarship.

That trick play at the 50-second timestamp became the inspiration for the “Philly Special” according to Doug Pederson.

Monday: Rumors Premature

Musical chairs could help Temple football

Every year pretty much every successful team in the American Conference is going to go through turmoil afterward.

Every team except Temple.

That might be the biggest football news of this offseason for K.C. Keeler and the Owls, whose wife has put her foot down. Both feet, really, firmly implanted in her hometown of Philadelphia, where the two met and married. She told Keeler that this is the last stop and he has agreed.

While Keeler is the CEO of the Owls, Janice Keeler is the CEO of the Keeler Household and the grandkids are here and every Temple fan should breathe a sigh of relief, really, for the first time since this whole NIL and transfer portal nonsense began.

The Keelers on the Bethany Beach Boardwalk last Feb.

That’s because, while there is some stability here, there isn’t throughout the league and Temple is left with perhaps the best coach in the league, although Army’s Jeff Monken might have a say in that.

Tulane played its final game of the season on Saturday night and replaced Jon Sumrall with assistant coach Will Hall. While that might provide some stability for the Green Wave, it also replaces a guy who won championships both at Troy and Tulane with a guy whose only head coaching experience was 16-30 at Southern Mississippi. He was fired after going 1-6 there in 2024.

Speaking of Southern Mississippi, Memphis hired his head coach, Charles Huff. Nice hire but if Huff leaves Marshall after winning a championship and then only gives a year to Southern Mississippi, what are the chances he moves on with any kind of success with the Tigers–maybe even after a year? Pretty good I’d say.

Hooter isn’t allowing K.C. Keeler to go anywhere.

North Texas replaced Eric Morris with Neal Brown, who was also a good head coach at Troy, but there are a couple of problems with that. Rumors are that Morris is taking his quarterback and running back with him to Oklahoma State, meaning that Brown will have to start all over again.

UAB replaced Trent Dilfer with Alex Mortenson, who has never been a head coach on any level, and USF replaced Alex Golesh with Brent Hartline, who was a coordinator at Ohio State. Unless he brings some Ohio State talent with him (doubtful), he’s going to have to rebuild that roster.

All are a year behind Keeler and the Owls, who have done a decent job of retaining the talent already here and procuring a dynamite freshman class.

Where that puts the Owls in the conference pecking order, no one really knows at this point but, thanks to K.C. and Janice Keeler, they are close to the top.

Friday: New Suitors for Targets

Monday: Rumors Premature

Friday: Grading Our 2025 Predictions

Monday (1/5): Temple’s Unsung Hero

Friday (1/7): Is it sustainable?

A Wednesday Night championship to remember

Plenty of Asa Locks highlights here and he should compete for a starting safety job.

Thanks to someone dropping the phone two weeks ago, we Temple fans have no football to look forward to involving our favorite team.

That said, some meaningful championship football was played as recently as 24 hours ago that has a direct impact on the future of Temple football.

Coach Crounse knows exactly where the Temple University stop on the SEPTA Regional Rail is.

Iowa Western University won the national championship in JUCO football on Wednesday night and Asa Locks was a big part of the defense that locked it down.

More importantly, it demonstrates the detail which Temple head coach K.C. Keeler and General Manager Clayton Barnes are taking to roster building.

In this case, replenishment.

The Owls will have both the need and room for talented defensive backs and Locks certainly falls into that category.

Finding Jaylen Castleberry was the perfect example of that a year ago. In the final year of Stan Drayton, one of the weak spots for the Owls was the cornerback position and Keeler identified that as an area of need in his second week on the job. So he went out and got Castleberry with the hope that he would win one of the cornerback positions and that’s exactly what happened.

In a pinch, Locks can return kicks

Now a similar signee will show up on campus in Locks, who is slotted to play safety. If the Owls can add a big-time quarterback like Mason McKenzie of Saginaw Valley, that would be another valuable addition. Let’s hope he commits soon.

One advantage Asa will have over the rest of his teammates is that he played the most meaningful recent ball and earned a trophy. That’s a year after he was named freshman of the year at VMI and returned a pick 6 for a touchdown there.

If he can repeat that feat in a dozen months, it will be further validation of the talent acquisition skills of Keeler and the kind of roster upgrade the Owls need.

Monday: Musical Chairs

The Temple Bowl Quote We All Need

After almost a full week since Temple got gift-wrapped a bowl bid and hemmed and hawed and fumbled it away, fans deserve an answer.

No, not the scripted answer released by the university but at least a comment from the CEO of the football operation, head coach K.C. Keeler.

It’s not only the quote we want, but also the quote we need.

Reading between the lines, here’s what probably happened: The Birmingham Bowl went down the Rolodex of eligible teams and asked each one for a “yes” or a “no” and moved on from on from the ones who gave a “no” and a “maybe” until they could get to a yes.

Two of the Owls’ best players were interested, as was probably the whole team.

Temple probably was one of the maybes.

As soon as Appalachian State said yes, all of the maybes were moot and they get to play Georgia Southern. Now Temple fans who do dial into that game get to point at the TV and said, “that should have been us.”

Until we get clarification, we have to assume the bowl got in contact with athletic director Arthur Johnson, who said the Owls needed time to talk to other parties within the school.

Birmingham didn’t have that kind of time.

That leaves us to the quote we need.

Keeler strikes me as the kind of person who is a straight-enough shooter to NOT cover for Johnson. If asked, my guess is that he would say: “I would have said yes but nobody asked me.”

This notion that because Temple was 5-7 it didn’t deserve a bowl is ridiculous. App State is also 5-7 and played a significantly easier schedule. Temple was two points from being 7-5.

It would have been great to see Evan Simon hoist that bowl trophy in one hand and maybe an MVP trophy in the other.

The fact that nobody in the media has even asked Keeler for his version of events is an indictment of the Philadelphia media and its interest in even covering Temple football.

Do you think this happens in other cities that have college football teams?

No.

I’m sure we’ll hear Keeler address the issue honestly at some point but Temple fans should not have had to wait a day or even a week to hear what he had to say.

It’s just one quote, but it would clear up a lot.

Friday: Key Commitment Coming

No more conventional thinking about Temple

Evan Simon (left) is leaving, but all signs point to pass rusher extraordinaire Sekou Kromah returning after surgery. Temple will miss Simon but hopefully the white helmets will also leave with his graduation.

At the most optimistic level, the conventional thinking about Temple football last year going into this one would have been to double the output of Stan Drayton, reach 6-6, and get to a bowl.

The Owls came oh so close. Three Victory Formation Knees short and a game-winning field goal against Navy close.

After that, all things being equal, Year Two in the K.C. Keeler Era would have been an 8-4 type season and falling just short of an American Conference title.

All things are not equal anymore.

With all of the great coaches leaving in the conference, there is no more room for conventional thinking about Temple in 2026.

We’re not saying an American Conference championship is the floor, but it is certainly a realistic ceiling.

Shocking that Temple is dealing with the new CFB reality.

Why?

Because with K.C. Keeler, Temple now has the maybe best head coach in the league. On top of that, Temple has done a pretty good job of retaining players.

Head coaches from Memphis, Tulane, South Florida have left for greener pastures, both literally and figuratively.

Keeler is still here. Arguably, Jeff Monken is a better head coach but Keeler and Navy head coach Brian Newberry are at least in the conversation for No. 2.

If Keeler wins the title in 2026, there is no conversation.

His culture is starting to take hold.

The Owls signed Giakoby Hills to a two-year contract. They offered Trinidad Chambliss $300,000 to play quarterback last year and Chambliss accepted and was set to announce on a Friday in Feb. before Ole Miss swooped in with a $600,000 offer. A week later, they grabbed the starting quarterback from Oregon State, Gevani McCoy, as an insurance policy.

Keeler needs to replace Kajiya Hollawayne (11) with a 4.4-40 type speedster and away we go.

Since Evan Simon didn’t get into a wreck, they didn’t need to use that policy but Keeler demonstrated a foresight that neither Rod Carey nor Stan Drayton had. Both were willing to blow up Temple seasons with an injury to the starter and both did.

Keeler sees the big picture.

The Owls’ No. 1 priority is to get an experienced winning transfer portal quarterback here and Keeler is on record as saying he will bring in two.

What does that look like?

Without naming names, it probably means a proven FBS starting winning quarterback as the first signee and a proven winning FCS starting quarterback as the second.

If the Owls were in the battle for Chambliss, and they were, and McCoy, who they got, expect something better in a month.

With Clayton Barnes handing the procurement of the players and Keeler handling the coaching end, Temple is in good hands.

If that happens, bleep an 8-4 season. A 10-2 one and a conference title is firmly in the crosshairs. Aim, ready, fire.

Monday: The Quote We Need

A Signing Day that could not have gone better

Lamar Best could pull a Bear Bachmeier (BYU) and be 11-1 as a true freshman starting quarterback.

Based on what happened Wednesday inside the Edberg-Olson Practice Facility, Temple is going to have a pretty good football team in 2026.

Certainly, better than the 5-7 product we saw in 2025.

That’s because Temple signed the No. 1 recruiting class–objectively, because that was determined by the 247.com rankings–in the American Conference and 21 of those 32 signees will be enrolled in the school by January, giving them a head start both in the weight room and with the program’s culture.

Signing day 2025 could not have gone better because of that.

It was a history-making class for at least a couple of reasons.

At No. 63 nationally, it was the highest ranked class Temple has had since Steve Addazio was able to bring in the No. 54 class after the 2011 New Mexico Bowl win over Wyoming. (Prior to that, Al Golden brought in a No. 52 class after the 2009 Eagle Bank Bowl game against UCLA.)

That was all in the middle of an historic Temple bowl run, which saw the Owls attain bowl eligibility for nine of 11 seasons. By comparison, Temple hasn’t been eligible for a bowl this decade and it is a decade that is getting pretty old.

Clayton Barnes showed every Temple fan why K.C. Keeler wouldn’t have taken the Owl job if he didn’t come along. He is the Howie Roseman of college football.

What determines the product on the field, though, will be the next signing day early in January when the Owls reap whatever they can sow from the transfer portal.

Probably the marquee pick of the 32 is St. Joseph’s (N.J.) Regional state champion quarterback Lamar Best, who played in a high school league every bit as good as the one current BYU true freshman Bear Bachmeier played at Murietta Valley (Calif.). Best not only knocked off national power Don Bosco in the state title game, he had a very similar sophomore season to Bachmeier in high school. Bachmeier threw for 2,853 yards and 26 touchdowns at Murietta while Best, then at Willingboro, threw for 2,607 and 35 touchdowns.

Whoever Temple brings in could very well lose the starting job to Best but the Owls probably won’t risk that scenario. To me, after an examination of both his film and the last true freshman Temple starter, P.J. Walker, he’s at least as good a passer but a far better runner. Walker was a true drop back passer in comparison to what Best can do with his legs.

The fact that neither head coach K.C. Keeler nor recruiting guru Clayton Barnes want to leave the results of the 2026 season on a true freshman indicates the soundness of their roster approach. They brought in two other great high school quarterbacks, Brody Norman and Brady Palmer.

The only “cinch” starter among the group appears to be Upper Moreland High punter extraordinaire Luke Sword. If he doesn’t punt much, the Owls are either scoring touchdowns or kicking field goals and those are the preferable options.

If nothing else happens, they will need an experienced winning No. 1 quarterback. Keeler said they will bring in two.

If this is Luke Sword’s first punt at Temple, I won’t be mad.

Refreshing to hear for Temple fans who were absolutely screwed by Rod Carey when Anthony Russo went down and felt the same level of de ja vu with Stan Drayton when E. J. Warner missed several games with an injury. Temple will never be one hit away from a season-ending injury with Keeler as head coach.

Whether that quarterback is from the P4, G5 or even the FCS, it doesn’t matter. If anyone doubts K.C. Keeler’s ability to do that, we only need to refer you to the acquisition of Gevani McCoy. That came days after the Owls lost current Heisman Trophy candidate Trinidad Chambliss to Ole Miss.

McCoy earned the admiration of every Temple fan in that he battled holdover Evan Simon to a virtual standoff before the opener at UMass, lost his job, and became a good soldier in supporting his teammates until the end.

Temple needs someone like that, who is good enough to beat out a true freshman with all the talent in the world or back him up as insurance in case he gets hurt. Someone with the character of a McCoy.

If nothing else happens, the floor is six wins. The ceiling with an experienced winning college quarterback is double digits.

If the next recruiting season (portal) is as exciting as the one concluded on Wednesday, Temple fans are in for a treat. They will need to get off the sugar high of the last treat and a month should be enough time.

Monday: Room At The Top

Friday: Burying The Lead